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Private Jobs Numbers Worse Than Expected

Top Day Rec

06.03

ADP private jobs forecast comes in worse than expected at -532K, 40K more than previous month. Of course, we get the US unemployment report on Friday. Then there’s factory orders and the ISM survey at 10 and oil inventories from The Department of Energy at 10.30

Going into today’s session, many markets were at or were approaching overbought levels: stocks, EC, gold, etc.

Fed Chairman testifies at 10.

Euro stocks lower on ideas that rally is outpacing earnings prospects. Euro zone unemployment at 9.2%

  

Jun 01

08:30

Personal Income

Apr

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.3%

Jun 01

08:30

Personal Spending

Apr

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.2%

Jun 01

10:00

Construction Spending

Apr

 

-1.2%

-0.8%

0.3%

 

Jun 01

10:00

ISM Index

May

 

41.0

42.0

40.1

 

Jun 02

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Apr

 

NA

NA

3.2%

 

Jun 02

14:00

Auto Sales

May

 

NA

NA

3.2M

 

Jun 02

14:00

Truck Sales

May

 

NA

NA

3.8M

 

Jun 03

08:15

ADP Employment Change

May

 

-520K

-543K

-491K

 

Jun 03

10:00

Factory Orders

Apr

 

0.5%

0.3%

-0.9%

 

Jun 03

10:00

ISM Services

May

 

45.0

45.0

43.7

 

Jun 03

10:30

Crude Inventories

05/29

 

NA

NA

-5.41M

 

Jun 04

08:30

Initial Claims

05/30

 

610K

620K

623K

 

Jun 04

08:30

Productivity-Rev.

Q1

 

1.4%

1.2%

0.8%

 

Jun 04

08:30

Unit Labor Costs

Q1

 

2.7%

2.9%

3.3%

 

Jun 05

08:30

Average Workweek

May

 

33.2

33.2

33.2

 

Jun 05

08:30

Hourly Earnings

May

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

 

Jun 05

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

May

 

-525K

-550K

-539K

 

Jun 05

08:30

Unemployment Rate

May

 

9.2%

9.2%

8.9%

 

Jun 05

14:00

Consumer Credit

Apr

 

-$6.0B

-$6.0B

-$11.1B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 105.15    

June Swiss: positive with support at 93.45

June EC: pos with support at 141.68   

June Canadian: positive with support at 91.50

June BP:  pos with support at 164.00.     

June ES: pos with support at 927.50

June NQ: pos with support at 1464   

June Russell: pos with support at 518     

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 8647

Aug Gold: positive with support at 974.00    

July Silver: pos with support at 15.60

July crude: positive with support at 66.90.         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.90

July Wheat: positive with support at 6.52

June Ten Year: neg with res at 118.01        

**************

International Markets

June Bund: pos with support at 118.75          

June Dax: pos with support at 5066  

NK: pos with support at 9690  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.  

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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