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Crude Oil Futures Continue Higher on Momentum Trades

Top Day Rec

06.11.09

This should be rollover day for stock index futures. September (September?!) will be front month. September ES is trading at a 4 handle discount to June.

Overnight, crude continued higher on momentum trades. The dollar is generally weaker, especially against the commodity currencies. Yen remains negative.

Retail sales at 8:30. 30 year auction today. Thereís a high potential for massive vol at 1pm.

MasterCard reports more use of debit cards than credit cards. This says a lot about the present state of consumerism. People arenít spending what they donít have.

Gold continues to have mounting any sustainable rally.

Interestingly enough, your average cargo ship costs 58K a day to lease while that same ship can be leased for 24K 1 year out. What does this suggest? Just in time leasing?

Chinaís buying binge of commodities is to restore inventories and prevent internal price shocks.    

 

Jun 09

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Apr

 

-1.0%

-1.0%

-1.6%

 

Jun 10

08:30

Trade Balance

Apr

 

-$29.5B

-$28.7B

-$27.6B

 

Jun 10

10:30

Crude Inventories

06/05

 

NA

NA

+2.87M

 

Jun 10

14:00

Treasury Budget

May

 

NA

-$175.0B

NA

 

Jun 10

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jun 11

08:30

Retail Sales

May

 

0.3%

0.3%

-0.4%

 

Jun 11

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

May

 

0.0%

0.2%

-0.5%

 

Jun 11

08:30

Initial Claims

06/06

 

610K

625K

621K

 

Jun 11

10:00

Business Inventories

Apr

 

-0.8%

-0.8%

-1.0%

 

Jun 12

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

May

 

NA

NA

-0.3%

 

Jun 12

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

May

 

NA

NA

-0.7%

 

Jun 12

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Jun

 

70.5

70.0

68.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

June Yen: neg so expect a test of 101.30

June Swiss: pos with support at 91.92

June EC: pos with support at 138.75   

June Canadian: pos with support at 90.33

June BP:  pos despite all its well chronicled problems. Support at 162.90       

June ES: pos with support at 927  

June NQ: pos with support at 1474     

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 8640

Aug Gold: really sloppy with support at 947    

July Silver: ditto with support at 15.00

July crude: in itís own universe with res at 72.50         

July Soybeans: pos with support at 12.45

July Wheat: pos with support at 5.86

Sept Ten Year: neg. with res at 113.10        

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 117.50       

June Dax: neg with res at 5118   

NKD: pos with  support at 100.11

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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