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Weekly Jobless Claims Slightly Higher Than Expected

Top Day Rec

06.18.09

Weekly jobless claims, expected at 604K, came in at 608K. Continuing claims at 6.7 million, down from 6.8 million. Stocks bumped higher on the better than expected continuing claims.

Leading eco indicators and Philly Fed at 10 and that clears the slate for eco data points for the week.

Overnight, the markets generally wandered through the night, looking for direction or inspiration and finding neither. UK retail sales were lower than expected and this took the Pound lower by 2 cents. Swiss is holding its own against the EC as the Swiss central bank is apparently not targeting a specific exchange rate but at 8:35 am someone said something and the market cratered 60 points. Crude traded a dollar range and is finding support at 71.10 and resistance at 72.10.

Treasury Secretary is on Capital Hill this morning.      

 

Jun 15

08:30

NY Empire Manufacturing Index

Jun

 

NA

-5.10

-4.55

 

Jun 15

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Apr

 

NA

$52.9B

$55.8B

 

Jun 16

08:30

Housing Starts

May

 

NA

483K

458K

 

Jun 16

08:30

Building Permits

May

 

NA

500K

498K

 

Jun 16

08:30

PPI

May

 

NA

0.6%

0.3%

 

Jun 16

08:30

Core PPI

May

 

NA

0.1%

0.1%

 

Jun 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

May

 

NA

68.4%

69.1%

 

Jun 16

09:15

Industrial Production

May

 

NA

-0.8%

-0.5%

 

Jun 17

08:30

Core CPI

May

 

NA

0.1%

0.3%

 

Jun 17

08:30

CPI

May

 

NA

-0.9%

-0.7%

 

Jun 17

08:30

Current Account Balance

Q1

 

NA

-$85.0B

-$132.8B

 

Jun 17

10:30

Crude Inventories

06/12

 

NA

NA

-4.38M

 

Jun 18

08:30

Initial Claims

06/13

 

NA

610K

601K

 

Jun 18

10:00

Leading Indicators

May

 

NA

0.9%

1.0%

 

Jun 18

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Jun

 

NA

-17.0

-22.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 102.90.

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.96

Sept EC: pos with support at 138.40.   

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 89.00

Sept BP:  potential reversal day if it can close above 163.90        

Sept ES: neg with res at 913.00   

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1469     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8494  

Aug Gold: positive with support at 935.     

July Silver: positive with support at 14.02.

July crude: pos with support at 70.30      

Nov Soybeans: pos with support at 10.32

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 6.02

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 114.10        

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 119.24       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4882

NKD: neg with res at 9878

 

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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