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Recession News Putting Pressure on Commodities Lifting Dollar

Top Day Rec

6.22.09

No eco data releases today. World Bank projection of a deeper recession than previously forecast put selling pressure on equities, crude, gold and lifted the dollar overnight. Rates are also lower this morning based on this vision of economic weakness with the 10 year at a yield of 3.789%.The market is also pointing towards the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but attention will be focused, as always, on the communiqué. Look for a reversal this afternoon for currencies and crude.

  

Jun 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

May

 

NA

4.83M

4.68M

 

Jun 24

08:30

Durable Orders

May

 

NA

-0.9%

1.9%

 

Jun 24

08:30

Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation

May

 

NA

-0.5%

0.8%

 

Jun 24

10:00

New Home Sales

May

 

NA

360K

352K

 

Jun 24

10:30

Crude Inventories

06/19

 

NA

NA

-3.87M

 

Jun 24

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jun 25

08:30

Initial Claims

06/20

 

NA

608K

NA

 

Jun 25

08:30

Q1 GDP - Final

Q1

 

NA

-5.7%

-5.7%

 

Jun 26

08:30

Personal Income

May

 

NA

0.2%

0.5%

 

Jun 26

08:30

Personal Spending

May

 

NA

0.4%

-0.1%

 

Jun 26

08:30

PCE Core

May

 

NA

0.2%

0.3%

 

Jun 26

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Jun

 

NA

69.0

69.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.76

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.45

Sept EC: pos with support at 138.10.   

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 88.40

Sept BP:  neg with res at 166.10        

Sept ES: potential reversal day    

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1478     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8550   

Aug Gold: positive but below daily support of 927.5     

July Silver: potential reversal day

Aug crude: pos with support at 67.30      

Nov Soybeans: potential reversal day  

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.87

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 113.25        

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 119.03       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4855

NKD: potential reversal day

 

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

  

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

  

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