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Fed leaves rate unchanged/Weekly unemployment data today

Top Day Rec

6.25.09

Fed leaves rates unchanged and seems a bit more upbeat in their assessment of the economy.

The Fed Chairman gives testimony today about BOA and Merrill and what was his exact role in this acquisition. Should be lively.

Weekly unemployment claims and final Q1 GDP at 8:30.  

The market canít develop a consensus. Each day is a one day phenomena. The World Bank states that the recession will be worse than they originally thought and the market falls sharply. Then, the attention shifts back to 12.8 billion dollars in stimulus and how this will eventually result in inflationary pressures and the dollar weakens. Then the attention flips back to projections of unemployment of 10% and record lows for cap utilization and how excess capacity will maintain deflationary pressures.  And so it goes.    

   

Jun 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

May

 

NA

4.83M

4.68M

 

Jun 24

08:30

Durable Orders

May

 

NA

-0.9%

1.9%

 

Jun 24

08:30

Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation

May

 

NA

-0.5%

0.8%

 

Jun 24

10:00

New Home Sales

May

 

NA

360K

352K

 

Jun 24

10:30

Crude Inventories

06/19

 

NA

NA

-3.87M

 

Jun 24

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jun 25

08:30

Initial Claims

06/20

 

NA

608K

NA

 

Jun 25

08:30

Q1 GDP - Final

Q1

 

NA

-5.7%

-5.7%

 

Jun 26

08:30

Personal Income

May

 

NA

0.2%

0.5%

 

Jun 26

08:30

Personal Spending

May

 

NA

0.4%

-0.1%

 

Jun 26

08:30

PCE Core

May

 

NA

0.2%

0.3%

 

Jun 26

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Jun

 

NA

69.0

69.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.55

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 89.90

Sept EC: pos with support at 138.50.   

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 87.50

Sept BP:  neg with res at 165.50      

Sept ES: potential reversal day     

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1462     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8350   

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 922   

July Silver: potential reversal day  

Aug crude: pos with support at 67.85   

Nov Soybeans: potential reversal day

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.775

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 114.24        

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.10       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4886

NKD: neg with res at 9928

 

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 ***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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