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Crude oil inventory number came out higher than expected

Top Day Rec

07.01.09

An even better news day than yesterday with the private ADP jobs forecast possibly opening a window to Thursday’s early release of the Unemployment data at 8:15 am (came in at 473K which, if this is correct, is better than the guesstimates out there for Thursday’s number), the ISM index and then crude oil inventories at 10:30.

Domestic markets closed Friday to observe the 4th on the 3rd.

Metals and equities were hurt yesterday by lower than expected consumer confidence.

 

  

  Jun 30

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Jun

 

56.0

55.1

54.9

 

Jun 30

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Apr

 

NA

-18.75%

-18.70%

 

Jun 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jun

 

38.5

38.5

34.9

 

Jul 01

08:15

ADP Employment Change

Jun

 

-400K

-363K

-532K

 

Jul 01

10:00

Construction Spending

May

 

-0.8%

-0.5%

0.8%

 

Jul 01

10:00

ISM Index

Jun

 

44.0

44.0

42.8

 

Jul 01

10:00

Pending Home Sales

May

 

0.0%

1.1%

6.7%

 

Jul 01

10:30

Crude Inventories

06/26

 

NA

NA

-3.87M

 

Jul 01

14:00

Auto Sales

Jun

 

NA

NA

3.3M

 

Jul 01

14:00

Truck Sales

Jun

 

NA

NA

4.1M

 

Jul 02

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Jun

 

-400K

-370K

-345K

 

Jul 02

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Jun

 

9.6%

9.6%

9.4%

 

Jul 02

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Jun

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

 

Jul 02

08:30

Average Workweek

Jun

 

33.1

33.1

33.1

 

Jul 02

08:30

Initial Claims

06/27

 

605K

NA

627K

 

Jul 02

10:00

Factory Orders

May

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.7%

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: possible reversal day (down)

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.77

Sept EC: pos with support at 139.75 

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.70

Sept BP:  neg with res at 165.40        

Sept ES: pos with support at 907.50    

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1464     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8488 

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 920   

July Silver: pos with support at 13.35 

Aug crude: pos with support at 6850    

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.23

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.62

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 115.26       

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.82       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4956

NKD: neg with res at 1098

 

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

 ********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 Ultimate sorrow is to love as gravity is to mass.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

  

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