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More selling pressure on crude futures due to a protracted recession

Top Day Rec

07.06.09

The unemployment report was badly received and encouraged ideas that the economy is still in the grip of a protracted recession. More selling in crude ensued based on the perception of reduced demand with the yen higher on risk aversion, gold lower on lack of inflationary pressures, equities lower on the prospect of lower earnings, etc.

Overnight, more of the same.

      

Jul 06

10:00

ISM Services

Jun

 

NA

46.0

44.0

 

Jul 08

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/03

 

NA

NA

-3.66M

 

Jul 08

15:00

Consumer Credit

May

 

NA

-$7.5B

-$15.7B

 

Jul 09

08:30

Initial Claims

07/04

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Jul 09

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

May

 

NA

-1.0%

-1.4%

 

Jul 10

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Jun

 

NA

NA

0.3%

 

Jul 10

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Jun

 

NA

NA

0.2%

 

Jul 10

08:30

Trade Balance

May

 

NA

-$30.0B

-$29.2B

 

Jul 10

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Jul

 

NA

71.0

70.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: potential reversal day  

Sept Swiss: pos but below daily support of 9171

Sept EC: pos but below daily support of 139.10  

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.46

Sept BP:  neg with res at 163.30      

Sept ES: pos with support at 884    

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1432     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8272  

Aug Gold: positive but below daily support of 925   

Sept Silver: pos but way below daily support of 13.28

Aug crude: neg with res at 66.10     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.27

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.38

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 116.18        

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 121.55       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4711

NKD: neg with res at 9800

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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