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Weekly claims out today, unemployment seems to be still going up

Top Day Rec

07.16.09

Weekly claims today and tic flows (foreign investment in US debt markets). Yesterday, the market continued to go parabolic on the back of the Intel earnings announcement. Optimism is nice, euphoria is questionable, however. The unemployment rate seems to still be going up while excess capacity also seems to persist. If 2/3rds of GDP is consumer spending, well…

 

   

Jul 13

14:00

Treasury Budget

Jun

 

NA

-$77.5B

$33.5B

 

Jul 14

08:30

Core PPI

Jun

 

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

 

Jul 14

08:30

PPI

Jun

 

0.7%

0.8%

0.2%

 

Jul 14

08:30

Retail Sales

Jun

 

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

 

Jul 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Jun

 

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

 

Jul 14

10:00

Business Inventories

May

 

-1.0%

-1.0%

-1.1%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Core CPI

Jun

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Jul 15

08:30

CPI

Jun

 

0.6%

0.6%

0.1%

 

Jul 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Jul

 

-3.0

-5.00

-9.41

 

Jul 15

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Jun

 

67.9%

67.9%

68.3%

 

Jul 15

09:15

Industrial Production

Jun

 

-0.6%

-0.6%

-1.1%

 

Jul 15

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/10

 

NA

NA

-2.90M

 

Jul 15

14:00

Minutes of FOMC Meeting

June 24

 

 

 

 

 

Jul 16

08:30

Initial Claims

07/11

 

550K

NA

565K

 

Jul 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

May

 

NA

NA

$11.2B

 

Jul 16

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Jul

 

-5.0

-5.0

-2.2

 

Jul 17

08:30

Building Permits

Jun

 

520K

523K

518K

 

Jul 17

08:30

Housing Starts

Jun

 

525K

530K

532K

 

      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                     

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: neg with res at 107.27 

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 92.30

Sept EC: neg but above daily res at 141.50

Sept Canadian: potential reversal day on a close above 88.72

Sept BP:  potential reversal day on a close above 163.25      

Sept ES: pos with support at 912.25     

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1473        

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8388  

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 928.50  

Sept Silver: pos with support at 12.93

Sept Copper: pos with support at 225.50

Aug crude: neg with res at 62.50

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.28

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.46

Sept Ten Year: reverses on a close below 117.15         

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund:  neg with res at 121.75   

Sept Dax: pos with support at 4840

NKD: pos with support at 9288

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ˝%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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