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Sign of Recession being over in addition to better Q2 performance by France and Germany putting some pressure on the dollar

Top Day Rec

08.13.09

 

 

The FOMC communiqué was taken as another indication that the recession is over and overnight this was further validated by better Q2 performances by France and Germany. This has put some pressure on the dollar and lifted gold into resistance at 961.30.

 

Retail sales could money wrench the works so be nimble.

 

Check out ichimokucharts.com. He updates them about 1 AM.  

 

Aug 11

08:30

Productivity-Prel

Q2

 

5.2%

5.4%

1.6%

 

Aug 11

08:30

Unit Labor Costs

Q2

 

-2.2%

-2.4%

3.0%

 

Aug 11

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Jun

 

-0.9%

-0.9%

-0.8%

 

Aug 12

08:30

Trade Balance

Jun

 

-$31.0B

-$28.5B

-$26.0B

 

Aug 12

10:30

Crude Inventories

08/07

 

NA

NA

+1.67M

 

Aug 12

14:00

Treasury Budget

Jul

 

NA

-$180.0B

NA

 

Aug 12

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

 

 

 

 

0.00%-0.25%

 

Aug 13

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Jul

 

NA

NA

0.8%

 

Aug 13

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Jul

 

NA

NA

0.2%

 

Aug 13

08:30

Initial Claims

08/08

 

540K

545K

550K

 

Aug 13

08:30

Retail Sales

Jul

 

0.9%

0.7%

0.6%

 

Aug 13

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Jul

 

0.3%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Aug 13

10:00

Business Inventories

Jun

 

-0.9%

-0.9%

-1.0%

 

Aug 14

08:30

Core CPI

Jul

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

Aug 14

08:30

CPI

Jul

 

0.0%

0.0%

0.7%

 

Aug 14

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Jul

 

68.5%

68.4%

68.0%

 

Aug 14

09:15

Industrial Production

Jul

 

0.5%

0.4%

-0.4%

 

Aug 14

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Aug

 

70.0

69.0

66.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

             
                           

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.16

Sept Swiss: potential reversal day  

Sept EC: potential reversal day  

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 92.67

Sept BP:  neg with res at 166.50        

Sept ES: pos with support at 988.50        

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1592  

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 9190

Dec Gold: neg with res at 962     

Sept Silver: pos with support at 14.27

Sept Copper: pos with support at 274  

Sept crude: neg with res at 72.30      

Nov Soybeans: pos with support 10.21

Sept Wheat:   neg with res at 5.05

Sept Ten Year:  neg with res at 116.21   

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 119.98

Sept Dax:  neg with res at 5461

NKD: pos with support at 10393

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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