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9.7% Unemployment rate, the day of the dreaded unemployment report

Top Day Rec

09.04.09

The day of the dreaded unemployment report. -230 in job loss and 9.5% for the unemployment rate were the early line projections. At least there’s a holiday Monday with domestic markets closed.  

Overnight, there’s been a reflex or retracement of recent moves: gold down (it’s been up, a lot), stocks down (they’ve been down on increased volume), crude up, etc…. Bigger trends should reassert themselves this afternoon.  

 

Aug 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Aug

 

48.1

47.2

43.4

 

 

Sep 01

10:00

Construction Spending

Jul

 

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.3%

 

 

Sep 01

10:00

ISM Index

Aug

 

49.7

50.2

48.9

 

 

Sep 01

14:00

Auto Sales

Aug

 

NA

NA

4.2M

 

 

Sep 01

14:00

Truck Sales

Aug

 

NA

NA

4.2M

 

 

Sep 02

08:15

ADP Employment Change

 

 

-255K

-246K

-371K

 

 

Sep 02

08:30

Productivity-Rev.

Q2

 

6.1%

6.1%

6.4%

 

 

Sep 02

10:00

Factory Orders

Jul

 

1.5%

1.5%

0.4%

 

 

Sep 02

10:30

Crude Inventories

08/28

 

NA

NA

+128K

 

 

Sep 02

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Aug. 12

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 03

08:30

Initial Claims

08/29

 

550K

570K

570K

 

 

Sep 03

10:00

ISM Services

Aug

 

48.7

48.0

46.4

 

 

Sep 04

08:30

Average Workweek

Aug

 

33.1

33.1

33.1

 

 

Sep 04

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Aug

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

Sep 04

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Aug

 

-265K

-225K

-247K

 

 

Sep 04

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Aug

 

9.5%

9.5%

9.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
                           
                           

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 107.25  

Sept Swiss: positive with support at 93.80    

Sept EC: positive with support at 142.08  

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 91.58

Sept BP:  potential reversal day        

Sept ES: neg with res at 1012

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1623   

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 9416

Dec Gold: pos with support at 983

Dec Silver: pos with support at 15.66  

Dec Copper: pos with support at 280

Oct Crude: neg with res at 69.00      

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.59

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.89

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 117.17   

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 120.94

Sept Dax:  neg with res at 5404

NKD:  neg with res at 10291

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 ********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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