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Weekly unemployment claims down 12k

Top Day Rec

09.17.09

Housing Starts +1.5%. Weekly Unemployment claims down 12K.  Both pretty much as expected. Upward revision in continuing claims.  Philly Fed and its anecdotal evidence of business activity in that theater at 10.00. Thatís it for the week in terms of eco data points.  

Swiss N.B. leaves short term rates unchanged but continue to maintain their desire to fight appreciation versus the EC.

British retail sales flat. Failure to take out a 61% retracement from H to L opens up a test of 163.45

 

Stocks continue to grind higher on decreasing volume. Chart below is of a weekly time period.

 EC has been under accumulation 9 days in a row with RSI approach 70+

 

   

Sep 15

08:30

Core PPI

Aug

 

0.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

 

Sep 15

08:30

PPI

Aug

 

1.0%

0.8%

-0.9%

 

Sep 15

08:30

Retail Sales

Aug

 

2.1%

1.9%

-0.1%

 

Sep 15

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Aug

 

0.1%

0.4%

-0.6%

 

Sep 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Sep

 

13.00

15.00

12.08

 

Sep 15

10:00

Business Inventories

Jul

 

-1.2%

-0.8%

-1.1%

 

Sep 16

08:30

Core CPI

Aug

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Sep 16

08:30

CPI

Aug

 

0.2%

0.3%

0.0%

 

Sep 16

09:00

Net Long-term TIC Flows

Jul

 

NA

NA

-31.2B

 

Sep 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Aug

 

69.6%

69.1%

68.5%

 

Sep 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Aug

 

1.0%

0.7%

0.5%

 

Sep 16

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/11

 

NA

NA

-5.91M

 

Sep 17

08:30

Building Permits

Aug

 

575K

596K

564K

 

Sep 17

08:30

Housing Starts

Aug

 

570K

580K

581K

 

Sep 17

08:30

Initial Claims

09/12

 

565K

555K

550K

 

Sep 17

08:30

Continuing Claims

09/05

 

6000K

6114K

6088K

 

Sep 17

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Sep

 

10.0

8.0

4.2

 

    

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: pos with support at 108.67    

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.25    

Dec EC: positive with support at 146.04.  

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 92.90

Dec BP:  pos with res at 165.90        

Dec ES: pos with support at 1038

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1682  

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9540

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1001.70

Dec Silver: pos with support at 16.80   

Dec Copper: potential reversal day

Oct Crude: potential reversal day       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.64

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.75

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 117.17   

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: neg with res at 121.20  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5650

NKD:  pos but below daily support of 10306

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

********************************************

Charles Kespert

 

**********************     

 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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