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Oil inventories and the FOMC rate decision at 2:15 pm

Top Day Rec

09.23.09

Oil inventories and the FOMC rate decision at 2:15. Itís widely expected that short term rates remain unchanged. Many expect optimistic language in the communiquť. Still, itís best to get out of the way of these events. G-20 meets tomorrow in Pittsburgh.

Overnight, oil is slightly lower on ideas that distillate inventories will remain at 26 year highs. BP slightly higher on crosses against the EC and the idea that the BOE will not increase purchases of its own debt. Lower shipping rates in China.

    

Sep 21

10:00

Leading Indicators

Aug

 

NA

0.7%

0.6%

 

Sep 22

10:00

FHFA US Housing Price Index

Jul

 

NA

0.5%

0.5%

 

Sep 23

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/18

 

NA

NA

-4.73M

 

Sep 23

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

Sep

 

NA

0.25%

0.25%

 

Sep 24

08:30

Initial Claims

09/19

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Sep 24

08:30

Continuing Claims

09/12

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Sep 24

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Aug

 

NA

5.33M

5.24M

 

Sep 25

08:30

Durable Orders

Aug

 

NA

0.1%

5.1%

 

Sep 25

08:30

Durables, ex Transpiration

Aug

 

NA

0.8%

1.1%

 

Sep 25

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Sep

 

NA

70.0

70.2

 

Sep 25

10:00

New Home Sales

Aug

 

NA

440K

433K

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 110.20     

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 97.10    

Dec EC: positive with support at 146.15.  

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 92.90

Dec BP:  neg with res at 164.80         

Dec ES: pos with support at 1061.00  

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1726.00 (in its 13th day of accumulation).  

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9723

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1023

Dec Silver: neg with res at 17.36    

Dec Copper: potential reversal day but failing

Nov Crude: res at 72.60       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.31

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.62

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 117.09   

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: potential reversal day   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5744

Dec NKD pos with support at 104.40

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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