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Gold continues to trade upside while crude oil got whipsawed

Top Day Rec

09.24.09

Just Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 and Existing Home Sales at 10. (Claims dropped by 21K with an upward revision the previous week).

Yesterday, the FOMC communiqué tried a positive spin but ultimately the US economy is not strong enough for them to remove stimulus measures. There was a significant price rejection at 1075 in the S+P. Oil saw distillate inventories remain at multi year highs and prices cratered. Gold continues to trade more as a currency than as a barometer of inflationary pressures or lack thereof.   

G-20 convenes in Pittsburgh over the weekend but it’s not expected that they will specifically address currency levels.  

    

Sep 21

10:00

Leading Indicators

Aug

 

NA

0.7%

0.6%

 

Sep 22

10:00

FHFA US Housing Price Index

Jul

 

NA

0.5%

0.5%

 

Sep 23

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/18

 

NA

NA

-4.73M

 

Sep 23

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

Sep

 

NA

0.25%

0.25%

 

Sep 24

08:30

Initial Claims

09/19

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Sep 24

08:30

Continuing Claims

09/12

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Sep 24

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Aug

 

NA

5.33M

5.24M

 

Sep 25

08:30

Durable Orders

Aug

 

NA

0.1%

5.1%

 

Sep 25

08:30

Durables, ex Transpiration

Aug

 

NA

0.8%

1.1%

 

Sep 25

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Sep

 

NA

70.0

70.2

 

Sep 25

10:00

New Home Sales

Aug

 

NA

440K

433K

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.15     

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 97.08    

Dec EC: positive with support at 146.71.  

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 92.95

Dec BP:  neg with res at 164.00         

Dec ES: pos with support at 1051.00  

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1713.00   

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9645

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1021

Dec Silver: neg with res at 17.22    

Dec Copper: neg with res at 287

Nov Crude: res at 71.10       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.30

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.68

Dec Ten Year:  potential reversal day   

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 120.00   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5744

Dec NKD potential reversal day

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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