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The perception of better world economic performance lifts equity and crude futures

Top Day Rec

10.12.09

The holiday that isnít. No banks. No mail. No data points until the 14th. Overnight, the perception of better world economic performance lifts equities and crude. A lack of serious sellers today, being a ďholidayĒ, allows stocks to lift higher. BP continues to tilt lower.   

    

Oct 14

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Sep

 

NA

NA

0.8%

 

Oct 14

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Sep

 

NA

NA

0.4%

 

Oct 14

08:30

Retail Sales

Sep

 

-2.7%

-2.1%

2.7%

 

Oct 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Sep

 

-0.3%

0.2%

1.1%

 

Oct 14

10:00

Business Inventories

Aug

 

-1.2%

-0.9%

-1.0%

 

Oct 14

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Sep

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 15

08:30

Initial Claims

10/10

 

540K

525K

521K

 

Oct 15

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/03

 

6000K

6060K

6040K

 

Oct 15

08:30

Core CPI

Sep

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Oct 15

08:30

CPI

Sep

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

 

Oct 15

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Oct

 

13.5

12.3

14.1

 

Oct 15

13:00

Crude Inventories

10/09

 

 

 

-0.98M

 

Oct 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Aug

 

NA

NA

15.3B

 

Oct 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Sep

 

70.1%

69.7%

69.6%

 

Oct 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Sep

 

0.4%

0.1%

0.8%

 

Oct 16

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Oct

 

74.0

73.5

73.5

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: pos with support at 110.01    

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.50     

Dec EC: pos with support at 146.55

Dec Canadian: pos with res at 95.55 (economy adds jobs)

Dec BP:  neg with res at 159.95     

Dec ES: pos with support at 1061.50

Dec NQ: pos with support 1712.00     

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 9737

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1043.30

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.55     

Dec Copper: pos with support at 281.00  

Nov Crude: res at 73.30       

Nov Soybeans: pos with support at 9.40  

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.67

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 119.00   

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.72  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5712

Dec NKD pos with support at 1004.50  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

    

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

  

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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