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Currency volatility is destabilizing and the EuroCurrency comes off the highs

Top Day Rec

10.15.09

Goldman and Citi both report earnings that beat the Street but are lower in pre market trading. JC Trichet says that currency volatility is destabilizing and the EuroCurrency comes off the highs. The Bank of England may be pausing its asset repurchasing program due to improving economic conditions and the BP rallies. Department of Energy numbers out today regarding supply and demand due to Columbus Day while the American Petroleum Instiute stated that crude stocks were lower by 172K last night.

Initial jobless claims come in at -10K at 514K. Thatís an improvement. Core CPI +0.2% with NY State Manufacturing at 34.57 which is double Septemberís tally.   

   

Oct 14

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Sep

 

NA

NA

0.8%

 

Oct 14

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Sep

 

NA

NA

0.4%

 

Oct 14

08:30

Retail Sales

Sep

 

-2.7%

-2.1%

2.7%

 

Oct 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Sep

 

-0.3%

0.2%

1.1%

 

Oct 14

10:00

Business Inventories

Aug

 

-1.2%

-0.9%

-1.0%

 

Oct 14

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Sep

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 15

08:30

Initial Claims

10/10

 

540K

525K

521K

 

Oct 15

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/03

 

6000K

6060K

6040K

 

Oct 15

08:30

Core CPI

Sep

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Oct 15

08:30

CPI

Sep

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

 

Oct 15

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Oct

 

13.5

12.3

14.1

 

Oct 15

13:00

Crude Inventories

10/09

 

 

 

-0.98M

 

Oct 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Aug

 

NA

NA

15.3B

 

Oct 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Sep

 

70.1%

69.7%

69.6%

 

Oct 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Sep

 

0.4%

0.1%

0.8%

 

Oct 16

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Oct

 

74.0

73.5

73.5

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: support at 110.53     

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 97.92     

Dec EC: pos with support at 148.44

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 96.39

Dec BP:  neg with res at 160.60     

Dec ES: pos with support at 1066

Dec NQ: pos with support 1729.00     

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 9864

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1048.80

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.47     

Dec Copper: pos with support at 278.00  

Dec Crude: pos with support at 74.40       

Jan Soybeans: pos but below daily support of 9.81

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.92

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.19    

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos but below daily support of 121.43  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5737

Dec NKD pos with support at 100.85  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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