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China grows at 8.9% but a downgrade for Wells yesterday put a damper on the stock market

Top Day Rec

10.22.09

Overnight, markets are fairly orderly. A downgrade for Wells yesterday afternoon by a prominent analyst threw water on the party. China grows at 8.9% and this has initiated the thought that stimulus should be withdrawn. FTSE, DAX and CAC all down by 1.0%.

Weekly jobless claims up by 11K, more than forecast.

 

Oct 20

08:30

Building Permits

Sep

 

580K

590K

579K

 

Oct 20

08:30

Housing Starts

Sep

 

585K

610K

598K

 

Oct 20

08:30

PPI

Sep

 

0.0%

0.0%

1.7%

 

Oct 20

08:30

Core PPI

Sep

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

 

Oct 21

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/16

 

NA

NA

0.33M

 

Oct 21

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 22

08:30

Initial Claims

10/17

 

525K

517K

514K

 

Oct 22

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/10

 

5950K

5990K

5992K

 

Oct 22

10:00

Leading Indicators

Sep

 

1.0%

0.9%

0.6%

 

Oct 22

10:00

FHFA Housing Price Index

AUG

 

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

 

Oct 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Sep

 

5.45M

5.35M

5.10M

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: could be a reversal day (probably trades to 110 then down to 109.60     

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 98.80      

Dec EC: pos with support at 149.31

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 94.30

Dec BP:  pos with support at 164.30  

Dec ES: potential reversal day

A 50% retracement brings us up to 1127

 

Dec NQ: pos with support 1726. A 61% retracement from high to low in the Nadaq would bring us to 1784.00

     

Dec Mini Dow: potential reversal day. A 50% retracement takes us to 10,368

 

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1042

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.11     

Dec Copper: pos with support at 294.00  

Dec Crude: pos with support at 78.70       

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 9.875  

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 5.22  

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 117.25    

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos but below daily support of 120.80  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5692

Dec NKD pos with support at 102.15  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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