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Technical considerations should define trading today

Top Day Rec

10.26.09

No data points today. Net changes are not radically different than Friday’s close. Overnight, Jen Claude Trichet again tried talking down the EC, saying that the Ec was not designed to be the world’s reserve currency. Technical considerations should define trading today without the introduction of fresh news. Interest is focused on tomorrow’s Case Schiller for housing activity. Seems that there have been 74 thousand bogus claims for the 8K first time home buyers tax credit. Unbelievable. Fed Reserve Bank of Chicago index still indicates eco contraction.  

 

Oct 27

09:00

CaseShiller Home Price Index

Aug

 

-13.0%

-11.90%

-13.30%

 

Oct 27

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Oct

 

52.6

53.5

53.1

 

Oct 28

08:30

Durable Orders

Sep

 

0.5%

1.0%

-2.4%

 

Oct 28

08:30

Durable Orders ex Transportation

Sep

 

0.1%

0.7%

0.0%

 

Oct 28

10:00

New Home Sales

Sep

 

450K

440K

429K

 

Oct 28

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/23

 

NA

NA

1.31M

 

Oct 29

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q3

 

1.3%

1.3%

0.0%

 

Oct 29

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q3

 

2.5%

3.2%

-0.7%

 

Oct 29

08:30

Initial Claims

10/24

 

520K

525K

531K

 

Oct 29

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/17

 

5890K

5915K

5923K

 

Oct 30

08:30

Personal Income

Sep

 

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

 

Oct 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Sep

 

-0.7%

-0.5%

1.3%

 

Oct 30

08:30

PCE Prices

Sep

 

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

Oct 30

08:30

Core PCE Prices

Sep

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

Oct 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Oct

 

51.0

48.7

46.1

 

Oct 30

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Oct

 

70.3

70.0

69.4

 

Oct 30

10:00

Employment Cost Index

Q3

 

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 109.25. Target for the day is 108.25      

Dec Swiss: pos with res at 99.57      

Dec EC: pos with support at 149.60 and res at 105.45

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day  

Dec BP:  pos with support at 161.70  

Dec ES: pos with res at 1091 and support at 1068

A 50% retracement brings us up to 1127

 

Dec NQ: pos with res at 1771. A 61% retracement from high to low in the Nadaq would bring us to 1784.00

     

Dec Mini Dow: pos with daily res at 1003.80. A 50% retracement takes us to 10,368

 

Dec Gold: potential reversal day

Dec Silver: pos with res at 17.97     

Dec Copper: pos with res at 309.50  

Dec Crude: pos with res at 80.60 and support at 79.50       

Jan Soybeans: pos with res at 10.23  

Dec Wheat: pos with res at 5.38  

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 117.28     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 120.67  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5701

Dec NKD pos with res at 104.31  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ˝%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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