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Consumer Confidence number out today, falling gold futures price driving a weaker dollar

Top Day Rec

10.26.09

Case-Shiller will attract interest today as it accurately pictures current activity in the housing sector in 20 metro areas. Consumer confidence coming out at the same time of day is capable of creating cross currents. Overnight, quiet with gold failing to respond to a weaker dollar. The market seems as soggy as the weather.

 

Oct 27

09:00

CaseShiller Home Price Index

Aug

 

-13.0%

-11.90%

-13.30%

 

Oct 27

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Oct

 

52.6

53.5

53.1

 

Oct 28

08:30

Durable Orders

Sep

 

0.5%

1.0%

-2.4%

 

Oct 28

08:30

Durable Orders ex Transportation

Sep

 

0.1%

0.7%

0.0%

 

Oct 28

10:00

New Home Sales

Sep

 

450K

440K

429K

 

Oct 28

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/23

 

NA

NA

1.31M

 

Oct 29

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q3

 

1.3%

1.3%

0.0%

 

Oct 29

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q3

 

2.5%

3.2%

-0.7%

 

Oct 29

08:30

Initial Claims

10/24

 

520K

525K

531K

 

Oct 29

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/17

 

5890K

5915K

5923K

 

Oct 30

08:30

Personal Income

Sep

 

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

 

Oct 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Sep

 

-0.7%

-0.5%

1.3%

 

Oct 30

08:30

PCE Prices

Sep

 

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

Oct 30

08:30

Core PCE Prices

Sep

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

Oct 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Oct

 

51.0

48.7

46.1

 

Oct 30

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Oct

 

70.3

70.0

69.4

 

Oct 30

10:00

Employment Cost Index

Q3

 

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 108.98. Target for the day is 108.20      

Dec Swiss: potential reversal day       

Dec EC: potential reversal day  

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 94.12  

Dec BP:  pos with support at 162.40  

Dec ES: potential reversal day

Dec NQ: potential reversal day  

Dec Mini Dow: pos with daily res at 1003.80

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1054

Dec Silver: pos with support at 16.50     

Dec Copper: pos with support at 297  

Dec Crude: potential reversal day        

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 9.75  

Dec Wheat: potential reversal day   

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 117.15     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 120.76  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5578

Dec NKD potential reversal day   

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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