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Dollar is better against other currencies, gold defensive

Top Day Rec

10.28.09

Itís raining, itís pouring in NYC this morning. Durable Goods comes in at 1.0% as expected. Single family home sales out at 10. Department of Energy will supply the weekly inventory report at 10.30.

Overnight, more of the same in terms of market action. Stocks have rolled over. Dollar is better against the group of currencies, gold defensive.

Rooting for the Yankees to win the Series is almost like pulling for Bill Gates to win the lottery after heís bought 75% of all the tickets.   

 

Oct 27

09:00

CaseShiller Home Price Index

Aug

 

-13.0%

-11.90%

-13.30%

 

Oct 27

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Oct

 

52.6

53.5

53.1

 

Oct 28

08:30

Durable Orders

Sep

 

0.5%

1.0%

-2.4%

 

Oct 28

08:30

Durable Orders ex Transportation

Sep

 

0.1%

0.7%

0.0%

 

Oct 28

10:00

New Home Sales

Sep

 

450K

440K

429K

 

Oct 28

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/23

 

NA

NA

1.31M

 

Oct 29

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q3

 

1.3%

1.3%

0.0%

 

Oct 29

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q3

 

2.5%

3.2%

-0.7%

 

Oct 29

08:30

Initial Claims

10/24

 

520K

525K

531K

 

Oct 29

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/17

 

5890K

5915K

5923K

 

Oct 30

08:30

Personal Income

Sep

 

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

 

Oct 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Sep

 

-0.7%

-0.5%

1.3%

 

Oct 30

08:30

PCE Prices

Sep

 

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

Oct 30

08:30

Core PCE Prices

Sep

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

Oct 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Oct

 

51.0

48.7

46.1

 

Oct 30

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Oct

 

70.3

70.0

69.4

 

Oct 30

10:00

Employment Cost Index

Q3

 

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec ES: neg with re at 1062 and a target of 1050.00

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1728 

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9840

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1045

Dec Silver: potential reversal day      

Dec Copper: pos with support at 291 

Dec Yen: neg but above daily res at 109.50      

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.45       

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.30 with a target of 146.80

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 93.80  

Dec BP:  pos with support at 162.20

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 9128    

Dec Crude: pos with support at 77        

Jan Soybeans: potential reversal day  

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.11   

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.20     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 121.30  

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5639

Dec NKD neg with res at 101.13   

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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