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Better numbers from Ford lifts the market

Top Day Rec

11.02.09

Better numbers for Ford (up 8% in pre market) and positive statements looking forward plus an expansion in Chinese manufacturing sees values generally higher this morning. Of course, last weekís performance was fairly abysmal. UK bank restructuring has pressured that currency.

A wall of numbers: Construction spending, pending home sales and ISM all out at 10.

Wednesday afternoon will see the conclusion of the two day Fed meeting. Watchers will be looking for signs of an exit from the current strategy of stimulus and zero interest rates.  

 

Nov 02

10:00

Construction Spending

Sep

 

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.8%

 

Nov 02

10:00

ISM Index

Oct

 

54.0

53.0

52.6

 

Nov 02

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Sep

 

1.2%

-0.1%

6.4%

 

Nov 03

10:00

Factory Orders

Sep

 

1.2%

0.9%

-0.8%

 

Nov 03

14:00

Auto Sales

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 03

14:00

Truck Sales

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 04

07:30

Challenger Job Cuts

Oct

 

NA

NA

-30.2%

 

Nov 04

08:15

ADP Employment Report

Oct

 

-235K

-190K

-254K

 

Nov 04

10:00

ISM Services

Oct

 

52.0

51.5

50.9

 

Nov 04

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/30

 

NA

NA

0.78M

 

Nov 04

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

11/4

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

Nov 05

08:30

Productivity-Prel

Q3

 

6.4%

6.5%

6.6%

 

Nov 05

08:30

Initial Claims

10/31

 

525K

520K

530K

 

Nov 05

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/24

 

5730K

5750K

5797K

 

Nov 06

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Oct

 

-230K

-175K

-263K

 

Nov 06

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Oct

 

10.0%

9.9%

9.8%

 

Nov 06

08:30

Average Workweek

Oct

 

33.0

33.1

33.0

 

Nov 06

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Oct

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Nov 06

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Sep

 

-1.1%

-1.0%

-1.3%

 

Nov 06

14:00

Consumer Credit

Sep

 

-$10.0B

-$10.3B

-$12.0B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec ES: neg with res at 1042 and 1054

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1679 

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9735 and 9830

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1055

Dec Silver: neg with res at 1661 and 16.97      

Dec Copper: pos with support at 291.50

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.80       

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.27       

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.21

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 92.88  

Dec BP:  pos with support at 163.00

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 9090    

Dec Crude: pos with support at 75.90       

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 9.97  

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.03   

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.31     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 121.75  

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5463

Dec NKD neg with res at 993.00   

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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