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Markets are higher in the belief that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 2:15 this afternoon`

Top Day Rec

11.04.09

Overnight, foreign equity markets are higher in the belief that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 2:15 this afternoon. FTSE is better by .68, Dax by 1.08 and CAC by 1.45. Gold is higher, a record high as perhaps the fruition of Fed policy. 12.8 trillion in stimulus and negative real rates of interest has to express itself and the bubble seems to have a golden color.

Will the Fed use the communiquť to at least try to talk up the dollar? Thatís the question.  

Also, some interesting election results last night at the gubernatorial level as voters push back, mainly motivated by higher property taxes. Higher unemployment and higher property taxes is hardly a delicious mix for any incumbent.

ADP private jobs survey sees the economy lost 203K jobs, more than forecast.  

Crude inventories at 10:35.

Game 6 at the Stadium. Donít forget your MLB approved parkas.

 

Nov 02

10:00

Construction Spending

Sep

 

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.8%

 

Nov 02

10:00

ISM Index

Oct

 

54.0

53.0

52.6

 

Nov 02

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Sep

 

1.2%

-0.1%

6.4%

 

Nov 03

10:00

Factory Orders

Sep

 

1.2%

0.9%

-0.8%

 

Nov 03

14:00

Auto Sales

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 03

14:00

Truck Sales

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 04

07:30

Challenger Job Cuts

Oct

 

NA

NA

-30.2%

 

Nov 04

08:15

ADP Employment Report

Oct

 

-235K

-190K

-254K

 

Nov 04

10:00

ISM Services

Oct

 

52.0

51.5

50.9

 

Nov 04

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/30

 

NA

NA

0.78M

 

Nov 04

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

11/4

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

Nov 05

08:30

Productivity-Prel

Q3

 

6.4%

6.5%

6.6%

 

Nov 05

08:30

Initial Claims

10/31

 

525K

520K

530K

 

Nov 05

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/24

 

5730K

5750K

5797K

 

Nov 06

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Oct

 

-230K

-175K

-263K

 

Nov 06

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Oct

 

10.0%

9.9%

9.8%

 

Nov 06

08:30

Average Workweek

Oct

 

33.0

33.1

33.0

 

Nov 06

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Oct

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Nov 06

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Sep

 

-1.1%

-1.0%

-1.3%

 

Nov 06

14:00

Consumer Credit

Sep

 

-$10.0B

-$10.3B

-$12.0B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec ES: potential reversal day

Dec NQ: potential reversal day   

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9785 and 9850

Dec Gold: potential reversal day

Dec Silver: potential reversal day       

Dec Copper: neg with res at 3.04

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.20       

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.07       

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.00

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day   

Dec BP:  pos with support at 163.70

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 90.60  

Dec Crude: pos with support at 78.70       

Jan Soybeans: potential reversal day   

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.29   

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.11    

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: potential reversal day   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5442

Dec NKD neg with res at 990.60  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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