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The unemployment rate comes in at 10.2%, the highest since the early 80's, while the job loss number higher than expected

Top Day Rec

11.06.09

And the Unemployment Rate comes in at 10.2%, the highest since the early 80ís while job loss come in at 190K against an expectation of a loss of 175K. 10.2% is fairly ugly and should be hard to spin positively. Remember though itís a lagging number.  

Yesterday, the drop in weekly and continuing claims gave the impression that the monthly number would be better than feared and this in turn set off a round of short covering. This morning, before the release, European markets are all fractionally higher.

The Yankees are congregating just outside our front door at Bowling Green to celebrate their 277th World Series championship. Sorry, itís only their 27th. Just seems like their 277th. But the impression that they win all the time is not exactly correct. Their previous World Series championship was in 2000 when Daryl Strawberry was on the roster. Seems like yesterday when I passed behind him on the way to work, pulled  his shirt tail and ran like, well, you knowÖ

 

Nov 02

10:00

Construction Spending

Sep

 

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.8%

 

Nov 02

10:00

ISM Index

Oct

 

54.0

53.0

52.6

 

Nov 02

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Sep

 

1.2%

-0.1%

6.4%

 

Nov 03

10:00

Factory Orders

Sep

 

1.2%

0.9%

-0.8%

 

Nov 03

14:00

Auto Sales

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 03

14:00

Truck Sales

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 04

07:30

Challenger Job Cuts

Oct

 

NA

NA

-30.2%

 

Nov 04

08:15

ADP Employment Report

Oct

 

-235K

-190K

-254K

 

Nov 04

10:00

ISM Services

Oct

 

52.0

51.5

50.9

 

Nov 04

10:30

Crude Inventories

10/30

 

NA

NA

0.78M

 

Nov 04

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

11/4

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

Nov 05

08:30

Productivity-Prel

Q3

 

6.4%

6.5%

6.6%

 

Nov 05

08:30

Initial Claims

10/31

 

525K

520K

530K

 

Nov 05

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/24

 

5730K

5750K

5797K

 

Nov 06

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Oct

 

-230K

-175K

-263K

 

Nov 06

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Oct

 

10.0%

9.9%

9.8%

 

Nov 06

08:30

Average Workweek

Oct

 

33.0

33.1

33.0

 

Nov 06

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Oct

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Nov 06

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Sep

 

-1.1%

-1.0%

-1.3%

 

Nov 06

14:00

Consumer Credit

Sep

 

-$10.0B

-$10.3B

-$12.0B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1047.00

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1686.50 

Dec Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1084

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.24       

Dec Copper: neg with res at 3.02

Dec Yen: neg with res at 110.85       

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.99       

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.70

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 93.27   

Dec BP:  pos with support at 164.80

Dec Aussie: potential reversal day    

Dec Crude: pos with support at 78.64       

Jan Soybeans: neg with rest at 10.05   

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.24   

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.15    

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: neg with res at 121.42   

Dec Dax:  potential reversal day

Dec NKD pos with support at 9728

 

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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