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Gold continues to move  higher while the dollar continues to be sold to finance carry trades

Top Day Rec

11.09

No eco data points today and for a few days actually. With the unemployment rate at 10.2%, itís hard to imagine the Fed changing rate policy. In fact, itís apparent that G-20 isnít about to take away the stimulus punch bowl and the consequence is another high for gold and European markets higher by 1.35% to 1.63%. Gold continues to imply that the world is awash with excess liquidity while the dollar continues to be sold to finance carry trades. The problem with openings like these is that many times the highs are made overnight so chasing them is usually the wrong approach.

The Houston Ship Channel is closed due to Hurricane Ida and this is a positive for crude.

The parade of the conquering Yankees seems like it happened last month. At the same time, the fall of the Berlin Wall was 20 years ago. Time and its infinite tricks.     

Nov 12

08:30

Initial Claims

11/07

 

525K

510K

512K

 

Nov 12

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/31

 

5700K

5700K

5749K

 

Nov 12

11:00

Crude Inventories

11/06

 

NA

NA

-3.94M

 

Nov 12

14:00

Treasury Budget

Oct

 

-$150.0B

-$150.0B

-$155.5B

 

Nov 13

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 13

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 13

08:30

Trade Balance

Sep

 

-$30.0B

-$31.9B

-$30.7B

 

Nov 13

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Nov

 

70.5

71.8

70.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1056.50

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1710.50 

Dec Mini Dow: pos with res at 10086and support at 995.30

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1095

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.42       

Dec Copper: neg with res at 3.04

Dec Yen: potential reversal day        

Dec Swiss: neg but above daily res of 9913       

Dec EC: neg but abaove daily res of 149.50

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day    

Dec BP:  pos with support at 165.80

Dec Aussie: pos with support at 91.19  

Dec Crude: potential reversal day       

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 9.74   

Mar Wheat: potential reversal day    

Dec Ten Year:  potential reversal day     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: neg with res at 121.30   

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5477

Dec NKD pos with support at 9780

 

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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