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We might be entering a period of negative core inflation while there's asset price inflation?

Top Day Rec

11.17

The Producer Price Index comes in at .3 while the core rate (ex food and energy) comes in at -.6%. Inflation usually lags the business cycle. Could we now be entering a period of negative core inflation while at the same time thereís asset price inflation?

Yesterday, the Fed Chairman did such a good job of describing the head winds that the economy faces that markets are actually slightly lower this morning. He also did something that was out of character, he talked about the dollar and that is higher this morning.  

  

Nov 16

08:30

Retail Sales

Oct

 

0.7%

0.9%

-1.5%

 

Nov 16

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Oct

 

0.1%

0.4%

0.5%

 

Nov 16

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Nov

 

20.5

30.00

34.57

 

Nov 16

10:00

Business Inventories

Sep

 

-1.0%

-0.7%

-1.5%

 

Nov 17

08:30

Core PPI

Oct

 

0.2%

0.1%

-0.1%

 

Nov 17

08:30

PPI

Oct

 

0.7%

0.5%

-0.6%

 

Nov 17

09:00

Net Long-term TIC Flows

Sep

 

$30.0B

$35.0B

$28.6B

 

Nov 17

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Oct

 

70.5%

70.8%

70.5%

 

Nov 17

09:15

Industrial Production

Oct

 

0.2%

0.4%

0.7%

 

Nov 18

08:30

Housing Starts

Oct

 

585K

600K

590K

 

Nov 18

08:30

Building Permits

Oct

 

585K

580K

573K

 

Nov 18

08:30

CPI

Oct

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

Nov 18

08:30

Core CPI

Oct

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

 

Nov 18

10:30

Crude Inventories

11/13

 

NA

NA

1.76M

 

Nov 19

08:30

Initial Claims

11/14

 

510K

504K

502K

 

Nov 19

08:30

Continuing Claims

11/13

 

5580K

5600K

5631K

 

Nov 19

10:00

Leading Indicators

Oct

 

0.5%

0.4%

1.0%

 

Nov 19

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Nov

 

12.0

12.0

11.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1095.00

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1789.00 

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1027

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1125.00

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.76       

Dec Copper: potential reversal day

Dec Yen: potential reversal day         

Dec Swiss: potential reversal day        

Dec EC: potential reversal day

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 94.46    

Dec BP:  potential reversal day  

Dec Aussie: potential reversal day     

Jan Crude: pos with support at 77.70        

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 10.17    

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.68    

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 119.05

Dec 30 Year : potential reversal day

Mar Eurodollar: po with support at 99.62     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.38     

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5750

Dec NKD pos but outside daily support at 9756

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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