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 Perception of interest rate remaining perpetually low allows certain markets to continue to inflate

Top Day Rec

11.23

Existing home sales at 10. Of course this is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday. As a large percentage of Wall Street grew up somewhere else, the population starts to thin out with each succeeding day.

Overnight, the perception is that interest rates will remain perpetually low and this will allow certain assets to continue to inflate.

Nov 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Oct

 

5.85M

5.70M

5.57M

 

Nov 24

08:30

GDP - Preliminary

Q3

 

2.8%

2.9%

3.5%

 

Nov 24

08:30

GDP Deflator - Preliminary

Q3

 

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

 

Nov 24

09:00

Case Shiller 20 City Index

Sep

 

-9.25%

-9.05%

-11.32%

 

Nov 24

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Nov

 

46.3

47.5

47.7

 

Nov 24

10:00

FHFA Home Price Index

Sep

 

-0.2%

0.1%

-0.3%

 

Nov 25

08:30

Personal Income

Oct

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

 

Nov 25

08:30

Personal Spending

Oct

 

0.3%

0.5%

-0.5%

 

Nov 25

08:30

PCE Prices

Oct

 

0.2%

0.1%

-0.5%

 

Nov 25

08:30

PCE Prices - Core

Oct

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Nov 25

08:30

Initial Claims

11/21

 

510K

500K

505K

 

Nov 25

08:30

Continuing Claims

11/14

 

5630K

5560K

5611K

 

Nov 25

08:30

Durable Orders

Oct

 

0.3%

0.5%

1.0%

 

Nov 25

08:30

Durable Orders ex Transportation

Oct

 

0.5%

0.7%

0.9%

 

Nov 25

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Nov

 

65.0

67.0

66.0

 

Nov 25

10:00

New Home Sales

Oct

 

420K

405K

402K

 

Nov 25

10:30

Crude Inventories

11/20

 

NA

NA

-0.887K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Dec ES: potential reversal day

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1783   

Dec Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1143.00

Dec Silver: neg with res at 18.91        

Mar Copper: pos with support at 312.00  

Dec Yen: neg with res at 113.00         

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 99.27       

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.98

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 94.60     

Dec BP:  neg with res at 167.55  

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 92.74    

Jan Crude: potential reversal day        

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.42    

Mar Wheat: neg with res at 6.02     

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 119.04

Dec 30 Year : neg with res at 121.08

Mar Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.64    

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 122.77     

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5791

Dec NKD positive with support at 9403

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

 

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

  

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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