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Federal Open Market Committee meets for a two day meeting.  Communique is to be released around 2:15 today

Top Day Rec

12.15.09

The core Producer Price Index comes in at .5 with the PPI at 1.8%, both higher than expected readings.

Empire State Manufacturing Index comes in at 2.55, lower than November.

Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 9:15.  

Federal Open Market Committee meets for a two day meeting with the communiqué to be released around 2:15 tomorrow. It’s widely expected that they will leave short term rates unchanged.  Consensus is that they will raise rates in Q3 next year. Is there wisdom in crowds or must the obvious be obviously wrong?     

This Week's Calendar

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com

Consensus

Prior

 

Dec 15

    08:30

Core PPI

Nov

 

0.1%

0.2%

-0.6%

 

Dec 15

   08:30

PPI

Nov

 

0.6%

0.8%

0.3%

 

Dec 15

   08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Dec

 

21.00

24.00

23.51

 

Dec 15

   09:00

Net Long-term TIC Flows

Oct

 

$38.7B

$42.3B

$40.7B

 

Dec 15

  09:15

Capacity Utilization

Nov

 

71.4%

71.1%

70.7%

 

Dec 15

  09:15

Industrial Production

Nov

 

0.7%

0.5%

0.1%

 

Dec 16

  08:30

Building Permits

Nov

 

560K

570K

552K

 

Dec 16

  08:30

Housing Starts

Nov

 

545K

578K

529K

 

Dec 16

  08:30

CPI

Nov

 

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

 

Dec 16

  08:30

Core CPI

Nov

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.3%

 

Dec 16

  10:30

Crude Inventories

12/11

 

NA

NA

-3.82M

 

Dec 16

 14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

Dec 16

 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

Dec 17

   8:30

Initial Claims

12/12

 

450K

465K

474K

 

Dec 17

  08:30

Continuing Claims

12/5

 

5250K

5170K

5157K

 

 Dec17 

 10:00

Leading Indicators

Nov

 

0.6%

0.7%

0.3%

 

Dec 17

 10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Dec

 

17.5

16.0

16.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Mar ES: pos with support at 1101.00

Mar NQ: pos with support at 1793.00   

Mar Mini Dow: pos with support at 1038   

Feb Gold: neg with res at 1131.2

Mar Silver: neg with res at 17.50      

Mar Copper: lower close confirms lower trend  

Mar Yen: pos with support at 111.46        

Mar Swiss: neg with res at 97.23         

Mar EC: neg with res at 146.15  

Mar Canadian: neg with res at 94.75       

Mar BP:  neg with res at 163.40    

Mar Aussie: neg with res at 90.45     

Feb Crude: neg with res at 72.65        

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 10.68    

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.34        

Mar Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.13  

Mar 30 Year : neg with res at 117.26

June Eurodollar: neg with res at 99.39

 

**************

International Markets

Mar Bund: pos with support at 122.67   

Mar Dax: neg with res at 5837

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

  

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 
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*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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