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US Dollar Futures Modestly Higher

Top Day Rec

04.15.09

Happy Tax Day. CPI comes in at -0.1% but the core rate is higher at +0.2%. Weak retail sales yesterday was a stock market negative as was the earnings release by Intel and the guidance it provided going forward. Overnight, the dollar is modestly higher while oil is on the fence ahead of the release of the Department of Energy numbers at 10:30.

As mentioned yesterday, “Current focus for cross currency traders is BP vs. EC with sellers emerging in the EC.”     

 

Apr 14

08:30

Core PPI

Mar

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

 

Apr 14

08:30

PPI

Mar

 

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

 

Apr 14

08:30

Retail Sales

Mar

 

0.5%

0.3%

-0.1%

 

Apr 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Mar

 

0.2%

0.1%

0.7%

 

Apr 14

10:00

Business Inventories

Feb

 

-1.2%

-1.1%

-1.1%

 

Apr 15

08:30

Core CPI

Mar

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

Apr 15

08:30

CPI

Mar

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

 

Apr 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Apr

 

-36.0

-35.0

-38.2

 

Apr 15

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Feb

 

NA

NA

-$43.0B

 

Apr 15

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Mar

 

69.7%

69.7%

70.9%

 

Apr 15

09:15

Industrial Production

Mar

 

-0.9%

-0.9%

-1.4%

 

Apr 15

10:30

Crude Inventories

04/10

 

NA

NA

+1645K

 

Apr 15

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr 16

08:30

Building Permits

Mar

 

545K

550K

547K

 

Apr 16

08:30

Housing Starts

Mar

 

560K

550K

583K

 

Apr 16

08:30

Initial Claims

04/11

 

645K

NA

654K

 

Apr 16

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Apr

 

-32.0

-32.0

-35.0

 

Apr 17

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Apr

 

59.0

58.5

57.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: potential reversal day

June Swiss: neg with res at 8850   

June EC:  neg with res at 133.60  

June Canadian: positive with support at 81.80

June BP:  potential reversal day    

June ES: positive with support at 824  

June NQ: positive with support at 1310   

June Russell: potential reversal day    

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 7730

Jun Gold: pos with support at 881

May Silver: pos with support at 12.45

June crude: potential reversal day       

May Soybeans: positive with support at 10.19    

May Wheat: neg with res at 5.30  

 June Ten Year: potential reversal day      

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.80        

June Dax: pos with support at 4485

NK: pos with support at 8800

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

  

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. 

 

 

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