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Crude Futures Prices Lower on the Threat of Higher Inventories

Top Day Rec

04.20.09

A quarter of all companies report this week and ahead of this the equities market is softer and the dollar is stronger. BOA and IBM report today.  The Dax, FTSE and CAC were all lower by 1 to 2+% while the Nikkei was higher by 0.19.

Crude is lower on the threat of higher inventories and slack usage. Other than that, itís a light news week in terms of data points.

        

Apr 20

10:00

Leading Indicators

Mar

 

NA

-0.2%

-0.4%

 

Apr 22

10:35

Crude Inventories

04/17

 

NA

NA

+5670K

 

Apr 23

08:30

Initial Claims

04/18

 

NA

630K

610K

 

Apr 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Mar

 

NA

4.65M

4.72M

 

Apr 24

08:30

Durable Orders

Mar

 

NA

-1.5%

5.1%

 

Apr 24

08:30

Durable Orders, Ex-Auto

Mar

 

NA

-1.2%

3.9%

 

Apr 24

10:00

New Home Sales

Mar

 

NA

340K

337K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

               
                   

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 101.70

June Swiss: neg with res at 8684   

June EC:  neg with res at 131.38  

June Canadian: potential reversal day (lower)

June BP:  potential reversal day (lower)    

June ES: positive with support at 846.00

June NQ: positive with support at 1326   

June Russell: positive with support at 461    

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 795

Jun Gold: pos with support at 861

May Silver: potential reversal day

June crude: neg with res at 52.50      

May Soybeans: positive with support at 10.32  

May Wheat: neg with res at 5.29  

 June Ten Year: potential reversal day       

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.38        

June Dax: pos with support at 4550

NK: pos with support at 8880

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use stops.  Donít think about using stops. Use stops.   

  

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

  

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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