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Worse than Expected GDP Numbers/FOMC decision at 2:15pm

Top Day Rec

04.29.09

Nominal GDP comes in worse than expected. We also get crude stocks at 10:30 and over riding everything is the 2:15 release of the FOMC communiqué regarding short term rates and the general health of the economy. 6 out of 19 banks need more capital. 66 confirmed cases of swine flu and one reported death of an infant.

Remember that FOMC decision days can roil markets so limit exposures.            

       

Apr 28

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Feb

 

NA

-18.7%

-18.97%

 

Apr 28

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Apr

 

29.5

29.9

26.0

 

Apr 29

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q1

 

-4.0%

-4.9%

-6.3%

 

Apr 29

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q1

 

1.7%

1.7%

0.5%

 

Apr 29

10:35

Crude Inventories

04/24

 

NA

NA

+3857K

 

Apr 29

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

 

 

NA

NA

0.00%-0.25%

 

Apr 30

08:30

Initial Claims

04/25

 

640K

645K

640K

 

Apr 30

08:30

Personal Income

Mar

 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

Apr 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Mar

 

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

Apr 30

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q1

 

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

 

Apr 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Apr

 

34.0

34.0

31.4

 

May 01

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Apr

 

62.0

61.5

61.9

 

May 01

10:00

Factory Orders

Mar

 

-0.4%

-0.7%

1.8%

 

May 01

10:00

ISM Index

Apr

 

38.0

38.0

36.3

 

May 01

14:00

Auto Sales

Apr

 

NA

NA

3.3M

 

May 01

14:00

Truck Sales

Apr

 

NA

NA

3.8M

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: pos with support at 102.75  

June Swiss: positive with support at 86.64

June EC: positive with support at 130.15   

June Canadian: positive with support at 81.96

June BP:  neg with res at 148.30.     

June ES: potential reversal day

June NQ: positive with support at 1385  

June Russell: positive with support at 462    

June Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Jun Gold: potential reversal day   

May Silver: pos with support at 12.17

June crude: potential reversal day; also, stats day         

July Soybeans: potential reversal day  

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.15

June Ten Year: positive with support at 121.08      

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 123.31        

June Dax: pos with support at 4568

NK: pos with support of 852

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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