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Jobless Claims Above 600k Still a Major Problem

Top Day Rec

04.30.09

Weekly jobless claims come in -14K to 631K which is ok but claims above 600K is still a major problem. Spending was lower by 0.02% which induced just a bit of profit taking in stocks which are relentlessly higher. Stocks are headed for their best monthly performance in 9 years. Although stock buyers think that consumer spending shows improvement, Starbucks canít detect this in their receipts. Chrysler is heading for structured bankruptcy.

       

Apr 28

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Feb

 

NA

-18.7%

-18.97%

 

Apr 28

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Apr

 

29.5

29.9

26.0

 

Apr 29

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q1

 

-4.0%

-4.9%

-6.3%

 

Apr 29

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q1

 

1.7%

1.7%

0.5%

 

Apr 29

10:35

Crude Inventories

04/24

 

NA

NA

+3857K

 

Apr 29

14:15

FOMC Rate Decision

 

 

NA

NA

0.00%-0.25%

 

Apr 30

08:30

Initial Claims

04/25

 

640K

645K

640K

 

Apr 30

08:30

Personal Income

Mar

 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

Apr 30

08:30

Personal Spending

Mar

 

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

Apr 30

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q1

 

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

 

Apr 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Apr

 

34.0

34.0

31.4

 

May 01

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Apr

 

62.0

61.5

61.9

 

May 01

10:00

Factory Orders

Mar

 

-0.4%

-0.7%

1.8%

 

May 01

10:00

ISM Index

Apr

 

38.0

38.0

36.3

 

May 01

14:00

Auto Sales

Apr

 

NA

NA

3.3M

 

May 01

14:00

Truck Sales

Apr

 

NA

NA

3.8M

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: pos with support at 101.20  

June Swiss: positive with support at 87.50

June EC: positive with support at 131.50   

June Canadian: positive with support at 82.30

June BP:  neg with res at 149.30.     

June ES: positive with support at 852.50

June NQ: positive with support at 1357  

June Russell: positive with support at 475    

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 798

Jun Gold: pos with support at 882   

May Silver: pos with support at 12.25

June crude: positive with support at 49.60         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 9.93  

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.22

June Ten Year: potential reversal day       

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 123.40        

June Dax: pos with support at 4650

NK: pos with support of 872

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use stops.  Donít think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

********************************************    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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