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May 13, 2009 - Stock Futures down on  Weaker Retail Sales News

Top Day Rec

05.13.09

Retail sales come in weaker than expected while the Secretary Treasury says systemic risk has lessened. Foreclosures at record levels but thatís at least in part due to the backlog that was created by an industry moratorium a while back. While the NY Times has a picture of 735 cargo ships sitting idle in the Strait of Malacca waiting for export business, the Baltic Dry Weight index has rallied six consecutive days.

Although stocks got hit with retail sales at 8:30, the Nasdaq/ ES puts in a doji with this information and closes higher in the next 15 min period.   

      

May 12

08:30

Trade Balance

Mar

 

-$29.5B

-$29.2B

-$26.0B

 

May 12

14:00

Treasury Budget

Apr

 

NA

-$63.0B

$159.3B

 

May 13

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Apr

 

NA

NA

0.1%

 

May 13

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Apr

 

NA

NA

-0.6%

 

May 13

08:30

Retail Sales

Apr

 

-0.2%

-0.1%

-1.2%

 

May 13

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Apr

 

0.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

 

May 13

10:00

Business Inventories

Mar

 

-1.0%

-1.1%

-1.3%

 

May 13

10:30

Crude Inventories

05/08

 

NA

NA

+605K

 

May 14

08:30

Core PPI

Apr

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

 

May 14

08:30

Initial Claims

05/09

 

580k

NA

601K

 

May 14

08:30

PPI

Apr

 

0.2%

0.1%

-1.2%

 

May 15

08:30

Core CPI

Apr

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

May 15

08:30

CPI

Apr

 

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

 

May 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

May

 

-14.0

-15.0

-14.65

 

May 15

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

 

 

NA

NA

$22.0B

 

May 15

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Apr

 

69.1%

68.9%

69.3%

 

May 15

09:15

Industrial Production

Apr

 

-0.4%

-0.6%

-1.5%

 

May 15

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

May

 

65.2

65.0

65.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: pos with support at 102.60   

June Swiss: positive with support at 90.06

June EC: positive with support at 135.63   

June Canadian: positive with support at 85.50

June BP:  pos with support at 151.25.     

June ES: potential reversal day

June NQ: positive with support at 1362.50

June Russell: potential reversal day    

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 8270

Jun Gold: positive with support at 915    

July Silver: pos with support at 13.75

July crude: positive with support at 58.70         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.05

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.83

June Ten Year: positive with support at 120.31       

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 121.19        

June Dax: pos with support at 4761

NK: pos with support at 9170  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use stops.  Donít think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert 

***********************      

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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