Top Day Recommendations
1.05.12
ADP Private Jobs Forecast comes in at +325 (December seasonality) while weekly jobless claims come in at 372K, revised from 382K, a good number. Continuing claims at 3.6 million. Unemployment may get down to 8% this year (clearly a speculation).
On these numbers, equities are supported while the dollar is stronger; the EC is trading in the 128 handle.
The DOE oil numbers will be out at 11 am NY time due to Monday’s holiday.
Crude will continue to be bought on breaks due to the possibility of an Iranian miscalculation in the Straits of Hormuz.
Week of January 02 - January 06
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | ISM Index | Dec | 53.2 | 53.4 | 52.7 | ||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Construction | Nov | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | ||
| 03 | Spending | |||||||
| Jan | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | 12/13 | |||||
| 03 | ||||||||
| Jan | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 12/31 | NA | NA | -2.6% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Factory Orders | Nov | 2.6% | 2.1% | -0.4% | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 14:00 | Auto Sales | Dec | NA | NA | 4.36M | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Jan | 14:00 | Truck Sales | Dec | NA | NA | 5.98M | ||
| 04 | ||||||||
| Jan | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Dec | NA | NA | -12.8% | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:15 | ADP Employment | Dec | 200K | 180K | 206K | ||
| 05 | Change | |||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 12/31 | 375K | 375K | 381K | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 12/24 | 3650K | 3620K | 3601K | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | ISM Services | Dec | 53.0 | 53.0 | 52.0 | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Jan | 11:00 | Crude Inventories | 12/31 | NA | NA | 3.899M | ||
| 05 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Dec | 165K | 150K | 120K | ||
| 06 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private | Dec | 200K | 170K | 140K | ||
| 06 | Payrolls | |||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Dec | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | ||
| 06 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Dec | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | ||
| 06 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Dec | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | ||
| 06 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | D | 1231.50 | 1242 | 1265 | 1277 | 1253 | 1271 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | U | 2232 | 2353 | 2311 | 2338 | 2296 | 2371 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | U | 127.64 | 128.87 | 130.24 | 130.65 | 130.78 | 131.46 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | D | 127.50 | 128.58 | 128.72 | 130.48 | 130.87 | 132.06 |
| EC | |||||||
| Mar 10 | PRD | 129.08 | 130.06 | 130.05 | 130.21 | 131.20 | 132.05 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Mar 30 | PRD | 140.26 | 142.26 | 141.25 | 143.12 | 146.01 | 147.08 |
| Year | (D) | ||||||
| Mar | U | 11..28 | 11.50 | 12.21 | 12.37 | 11.86 | 11.99 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 5.68 | 5.94 | 6.54 | 6.62 | 6.34 | 6.50 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1481 | 1524 | 1597 | 1634 | 1609 | 1652 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | U | 24.67 | 26.27 | 28.75 | 29.59 | 29.34 | 30.82 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 327 | 335 | 339 | 349 | 349 | 353 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Feb | U | 96.24 | 97.64 | 102.15 | 104.01 | 101.22 | 103.18 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.