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ADP comes in 3 times forecast

Top Day Recommendations

January 06

Yesterday, the ADP private jobs forecast came in 3 times forecast giving

further traction to the dollar which in turn put more pressure on hard

assets. The ISM number wasn’t as robust but by then it wasn’t critical to

directionality. Grains recovered going into the close as did crude. Grains

have a bid basically because of Australian flooding. Players will regroup

and gird fro Friday’s non farm payroll number to see if it reflects the

strength in the ADP number. So, today is a bridge day but watch the dollar,

it’s driving everything.

Does ADP have a seasonal adjustment problem? Even so, more are

becoming comfortable with the idea of US eco growth. Consequently we

are seeing flows into the dollar to buy US equities. The validation of this

belief will come with (or won’t come with) the NFP number on Friday. Event

risk at 8:30 am will be high.

.

Week of January 03 - January 07

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Jan 03 10:00 Construction Spending Nov -0.4% 0.2% 0.7%

Jan 03 10:00 ISM Index Dec 58.0 57.3 56.6

Jan 04 10:00 Factory Orders Nov -0.6% -0.4% -0.9%

Jan 04 14:00 FOMC Minutes

Jan 04 15:00 Auto Sales Jan NA 3.7M 3.8M

Jan 04 15:00 Truck Sales Jan NA 5.3M 5.5M

Jan 05 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 12/31 NA NA -18.6%

Jan 05 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Dec NA NA -3.3%

Jan 05 08:15 ADP Employment Change Dec 120K 100K 93

Jan 05 10:00 ISM Services Dec 56.0 55.7 55.0

Jan 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/01 NA NA -1.26M

Jan 06 08:30 Initial Claims 01/01 415K 405K 388K

Jan 06 08:30 Continuing Claims 12/25 4000K 4070K 4128K

Jan 07 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 150K 132K 39K

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Jan 07 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec 175K 142K 50K

Jan 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec 9.9% 9.8% 9.8

Jan 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Jan 07 08:30 Average Workweek Dec 34.3 34.3 34.3

Jan 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov $2.0B -$2.5B $3.4B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature

only, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend:

P is positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly

Levels are for the most active futures contract.

DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Eminis

S&P P 1239 1246 1260 1278 1259 1265

Emini NQ P 2190 2200 2242 2284 2232 2249

Yen N 119.48 121.38 119.32 121.54 124.41 125.59

EC PRD 129.30 131.47 130.70 132.71 135.02 135.40

10 year P 118.11 119.12 118.17 119.24 120.31 121.17

30 year N 118.05 120.04 118.08 121.00 123.05 124.07

Soybeans P 13.17 13.60 13.71 14.04 14.24 14.46

Corn P 6.02 6.24 6.06 6.26 6.36 6.43

Gold PRD 1356.2 1389 1363.40 1384.00 1438.4 1454.40

Silver P 28.07 29.52 28.56 29.88 31.66 32.40

Copper P 411.50 427.5 433 445 452.3 466.6

Crude P 87.75 89.19 88.66 91.40 91.63 93.86

Sugar P 29.90 30.10 30.97 32.93 33.10 33.70

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.