Top Day Recommendations
January 06
Yesterday, the ADP private jobs forecast came in 3 times forecast giving
further traction to the dollar which in turn put more pressure on hard
assets. The ISM number wasn’t as robust but by then it wasn’t critical to
directionality. Grains recovered going into the close as did crude. Grains
have a bid basically because of Australian flooding. Players will regroup
and gird fro Friday’s non farm payroll number to see if it reflects the
strength in the ADP number. So, today is a bridge day but watch the dollar,
it’s driving everything.
Does ADP have a seasonal adjustment problem? Even so, more are
becoming comfortable with the idea of US eco growth. Consequently we
are seeing flows into the dollar to buy US equities. The validation of this
belief will come with (or won’t come with) the NFP number on Friday. Event
risk at 8:30 am will be high.
.
Week of January 03 - January 07
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Jan 03 10:00 Construction Spending Nov -0.4% 0.2% 0.7%
Jan 03 10:00 ISM Index Dec 58.0 57.3 56.6
Jan 04 10:00 Factory Orders Nov -0.6% -0.4% -0.9%
Jan 04 14:00 FOMC Minutes
Jan 04 15:00 Auto Sales Jan NA 3.7M 3.8M
Jan 04 15:00 Truck Sales Jan NA 5.3M 5.5M
Jan 05 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 12/31 NA NA -18.6%
Jan 05 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Dec NA NA -3.3%
Jan 05 08:15 ADP Employment Change Dec 120K 100K 93
Jan 05 10:00 ISM Services Dec 56.0 55.7 55.0
Jan 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/01 NA NA -1.26M
Jan 06 08:30 Initial Claims 01/01 415K 405K 388K
Jan 06 08:30 Continuing Claims 12/25 4000K 4070K 4128K
Jan 07 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 150K 132K 39K
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Jan 07 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec 175K 142K 50K
Jan 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec 9.9% 9.8% 9.8
Jan 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Jan 07 08:30 Average Workweek Dec 34.3 34.3 34.3
Jan 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov $2.0B -$2.5B $3.4B
Current views, speculations and suggestions
good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature
only, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend:
P is positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly
Levels are for the most active futures contract.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
Eminis
S&P P 1239 1246 1260 1278 1259 1265
Emini NQ P 2190 2200 2242 2284 2232 2249
Yen N 119.48 121.38 119.32 121.54 124.41 125.59
EC PRD 129.30 131.47 130.70 132.71 135.02 135.40
10 year P 118.11 119.12 118.17 119.24 120.31 121.17
30 year N 118.05 120.04 118.08 121.00 123.05 124.07
Soybeans P 13.17 13.60 13.71 14.04 14.24 14.46
Corn P 6.02 6.24 6.06 6.26 6.36 6.43
Gold PRD 1356.2 1389 1363.40 1384.00 1438.4 1454.40
Silver P 28.07 29.52 28.56 29.88 31.66 32.40
Copper P 411.50 427.5 433 445 452.3 466.6
Crude P 87.75 89.19 88.66 91.40 91.63 93.86
Sugar P 29.90 30.10 30.97 32.93 33.10 33.70
**************
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.