Top Day Recommendations
1.11.12
Eco releases finally pick up with the release of the Dept. of Energy supply and demand figures and then the release of the Fed’s Beige book at 2 pm EST.
Overnight, ratings agencies are suggesting that the ECB must buy more euro debt to support the union. Also, concerns over the pension obligations in the Zone have pressured the EC overnight while news from the German Federal Statistics office that the German economy weakened in the fourth quarter pressured oil overnight. Be mindful of the weekly oil inventory report today before getting too short this market. There’s declension among EU nations about an Iranian oil embargo. Brittan wants a complete ban while others want conditional restrictions on Iranian oil.
Week of January 09 - January 13
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Nov | NA | NA | $7.6B | ||
| 09 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Wholesale | Nov | NA | NA | 1.6% | ||
| 10 | Inventories | |||||||
| Jan | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage | 01/07 | NA | NA | -3.7% | ||
| 11 | Purchase Index | |||||||
| Jan | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 01/07 | NA | NA | 2.209M | ||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Jan | 14:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Jan | |||||
| 11 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 01/07 | NA | NA | 372K | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 12/31 | NA | NA | 3595K | ||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Dec | NA | NA | 0.2% | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Dec | NA | NA | 0.2% | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Nov | NA | NA | 0.8% | ||
| 12 | ||||||||
| Jan | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Dec | NA | NA | - | ||
| 12 | $78.1B | |||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Nov | NA | NA | - | ||
| 13 | $43.5B | |||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Dec | NA | NA | -0.1% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Dec | NA | NA | -0.2% | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
| Jan | 09:55 | Mich Sentiment | Jan | NA | NA | 69.9 | ||
| 13 | ||||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
| R1 is Weekly Good Resistance | |||||||
| R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance | |||||||
| Levels are for the most active futures contract | |||||||
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1249.50 | 1261.00 | 1276.50 | 1293.75 | 1284.00 | 1294.50 |
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | U | 2281.50 | 2316.00 | 2347 | 2379 | 2373.00 | 2394.00 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | U | 128.76 | 129.36 | 130.03 | 130.40 | 130.63 | 131.30 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | PRD | 124.57 | 125.93 | 127.12 | 128.30 | 129.75 | 132.21 |
| EC | (U) | ||||||
| Mar 10 | U | 129.25 | 130.08 | 130.15 | 130.295 | 131.02 | 131.13 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | D | 140.04 | 141.18 | 142.06 | 143.11 | 144.07 | 145.14 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar | U | 11.60 | 11.78 | 12.13 | 12.39 | 12.29 | 12.62 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 6.24 | 6.33 | 6.47 | 6.57 | 6.58 | 6.73 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1540 | 1578 | 1613.50 | 1645.50 | 1644 | 1671 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | U | 26.94 | 27.82 | 29.05 | 30.44 | 29.65 | 30.61 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 329 | 346 | 343 | 355 | 351 | 360 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Feb | U | 97.77 | 99.94 | 101.22 | 103.33 | 104.09 | 106.07 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.