01.13.11
Filed 7:45 pm
Last Last Week 01.05
Mar Crude 92.18 91.42
Mar Heat 262.47 251.75
Mar Gas (Blended) 247.34 245.17
Crude oil fell from its best levels in over 27 months during trading on
Thursday as there was a larger than forecast increase in weekly jobless
claims. The weekly claims were termed disappointing as they were at
their highest level since October. Another negative for the market was a
drop in demand. Demand for oil products dropped 8.2% over the past
two weeks. Crude demand was lower by 0.5% to 19 million barrels a
day for the last reporting week. OPEC says they were going to reduce
shipments of crude as demand from Asia slows. A positive influence was
the surge in the euro currency has debt auctions by Portugal and Spain
went off smoothly. Another positive for the market has been a leak in
the Alaskan pipeline. There will be a shutdown of the Trans Alaskan
system this weekend to install a bypass.
Due to the storms that hit the Northeast of the United States this past
week, expect to see a buildup in gasoline stocks and a drawdown in
distillate stocks.
Crude oil continues to trend positively.
Support Resistance
Mar Crude 91.17 94.30
Mar Heat 258.50 265.00
Mar Gas 244.00 250.00
***********************
METALS
Last Last Week
February Gold 1373.80 1373.70
March Silver 28.775 29.19
Apr Platinum 1804.00 1740.10
Gold fell sharply in price on Thursday as concerns about the spread of
the European debt crisis were relieved as a result of successful auctions
by Portugal and Spain. Borrowing costs for Portugal dropped and
demand rose when they sold bonds with a 10 year duration. Demand for
Spanish bonds also rose as the ECB emerged as a buyer of these debt
securities in the secondary markets. All of this reduced the need for a
hedge, a hedge against event risk that gold was providing. It should be
remembered however that the European debt crisis is far from over.
For example, Portugal did raise $1.97 billion successfully but their
ultimate need is for $20 billion. In front of the two sovereign nation
auctions Gold rallied on a hedge bet that something might go wrong.
The successful auction completion triggered the gold sell off. The EC
may trade as high as 135 then falter on renewed European debt
concerns and this would be a gold market positive.
Support Resistance
February Gold 1365.00 1396.00
March Silver 28.00 30.00
Apr Plat 1746.50 1837.00
*********************************
SOFTS
Last Last Week
March Coffee 237.50 233.00
March Sugar 32.06 32.20
Support Resistance
March Coffee 223.20 244.20
March Sugar 29.59 33.46
*****************************************
Last Last Week
March Soybeans 14.16 13.934
March Corn 6.424 6.192
March Wheat 7.834 8.082
Corn surged by over 1.3% on Wednesday to the highest levels since July
2008 after the United States Department of Agriculture predicted that
production dropped 4.9% last year. This will leave supply levels at their
lowest levels in 15 years. The report also showed declining US and
global inventories of soybeans. Wheat supplies are also shrinking in the
United States after last year's harvest and the continuing dry weather
threatening winter crops in key growing areas in the Great Plains.
Higher prices though have resulted with sluggish export demand. The
old adage is that the cure for high prices is higher prices. Money flow
remains positive for the grains.
.
Support Resistance
March Soybeans 13.35 14.60
March Corn 5.93 6.50
March Wheat 7.56 8.04
Chuck Kespert from NY/NY
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT
LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS
SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS
THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE
FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL
TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO
ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING
LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS
RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.