Top Day Recommendations
January 13
The Portuguese debt auction went off smoothly but it’s good to remember
that they raised 1.9 billion of an eventual 20 billion dollar need. Next up in
the auction cavalcade is Spain and Italy. (Sounds like the intro of nations at
the Olympics). Since the Portuguese auction went well, the Spanish are
confident that theirs will as well. Currency traders are a bit fearful of a
Swiss central bank intervention. Previously, the Franc had appreciated 8%
against the EC on a safe haven play and the SNB says that that
appreciation threatens growth. Brent crude touched $100 a barrel while NY
traded crude has appreciated 4% since the leak developed in the Alaskan
pipeline. The DOE report was a mixed bag with crude declining by 2.15
million barrels while there were builds in gas stocks and heating oil stocks.
The crop report yesterday sent grains into a parabolic arc.
Week of January 10 - January 14
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Jan 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov 1.0% 1.3 1.9%
Jan 12 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/07 NA NA +2.3%
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.8%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.8%
Jan 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/08 NA NA -4.16M
Jan 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA NA -$91.4B
Jan 12 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jan
Jan 13 08:30 Initial Claims 01/08 415K 420K 409K
Jan 13 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/01 4000K 4070K 4103K
Jan 13 08:30 PPI Dec 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Jan 13 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Jan 13 08:30 Trade Balance Nov -$39.5B -$40.6B -$38.7B
Jan 14 08:30 CPI Dec 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Jan 14 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Jan 14 08:30 Retail Sales Dec 1.0% 0.7% 0.8%
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Jan 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.8% 0.6% 1.2%
Jan 14 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Jan 14 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 75.3% 75.5% 75.2%
Jan 14 09:55 Mich Sentiment Jan 75.5 75.0 74.5
Jan 14 10:00 Business Inventories Nov 0.9% 0.7% 0.7%
Current views, speculations and suggestions
good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature
only, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend:
P is positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly, so DS can be below weekly support
levels and DR can be above weekly resistance levels as a week of trading
unfolds
Levels are for the most active futures contract.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
Emini
S&P N 1244.50 1256.00 1277.75 1288.25 1278 1288.50
Emini NQ PRD 2195 2234 2356 2279 2297 2232
Yen N 117.23 118.87 120.10 121.07 122.80 125.09
EC P 125.57 127.43 130.08 131.93 132.73 136.17
10 year P 118.15 119.18 120.05 120.26 121.10 121.31
30 year P 117.28 119.14 119.26 120.26 122.11 123.22
Soybeans P 13.255 13.45 13.73 14.41 13.96 14.28
Corn P 5.09 5.82 6.11 6.43 6.26 6.47
Gold P 1310.50 1340.1 1378 1391 1411.8 1453.9
Silver P 26.48 27.60 29.42 29.87 30.55 32.58
Copper PRD 409.5 419.0 435 445 443.50 459.0
Crude P 84.10 86.29 90.67 93.17 91.02 94.70
Sugar P 27.65 29.59 30.85 33.28 33.46 35.39
**************
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.