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Jobs are just not being added to this economy

1.17.13

Top Day Market News

Today’s eco releases do not provide exceptionable event risk but they aren’t entirely without merit either. Industrial capacity and utilization rates are always important as is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Yesterday’s key number was the surprisingly high continuing jobless claims number. Jobs are just not being added to this economy (remember 74K in non-farm payroll) and job creation and retail sales are ultimately joined at the hip while sales are the driver of corporate profit.

Also of note yesterday was job creation in another country, Australia. The expectation there was for a gain of 10K and their economy ended up losing 22K. From the Eurozone to Australia, job creation continues to be a worldwide problem, particularly among youth. Aussie has broken support and could leg even lower after a minor retracement. Below is a weekly chart of that market.

 

Week of January 13 - January 17

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Jan 13

14:00

Treasury Budget

Dec

 

+$44.0B

+$44.0B

-$1.2B

 

Jan 14

08:30

Retail Sales

Dec

 

-0.3%

0.0%

0.7%

 

Jan 14

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Dec

 

-0.1%

0.4%

0.4%

 

Jan 14

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Dec

 

NA

NA

0.1%

 

Jan 14

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Dec

 

NA

NA

0.0%

 

Jan 14

10:00

Business Inventories

Nov

 

0.2%

0.3%

0.7%

 

Jan 15

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

01/11

 

NA

NA

2.6%

 

Jan 15

08:30

PPI

Dec

 

0.2%

0.3%

-0.1%

 

Jan 15

08:30

Core PPI

Dec

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

                   

 

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com Forecast

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

Revised From

Jan 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

Jan

 

4.0

3.5

1.0

 

Jan 15

10:30

Crude Inventories

01/11

 

NA

NA

- 2.675M

 

Jan 15

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jan

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 16

08:30

Initial Claims

01/11

 

335K

333K

330K

 

Jan 16

08:30

Continuing Claims

01/04

 

2875K

2835K

2865K

 

Jan 16

08:30

CPI

Dec

 

0.2%

0.3%

0.0%

 

Jan 16

08:30

Core CPI

Dec

 

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

Jan 16

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Nov

 

NA

NA

$35.4B

 

Jan 16

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Jan

 

8.0

8.0

6.4

7.0

Jan 16

10:00

NAHB Housing Market Index

Jan

 

57

57

58

 

Jan 16

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

01/11

 

NA

NA

-157

bcf

 

Jan 17

08:30

Housing Starts

Dec

 

945K

986K

1091K

 

Jan 17

08:30

Building Permits

Dec

 

1000K

1000K

1007K

 

Jan 17

09:15

Industrial Production

Dec

 

0.3%

0.3%

1.1%

 

Jan 17

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Dec

 

79.1%

79.1%

79.0%

 

Jan 17

09:55

Mich Sentiment

Jan

 

81.5

83.0

82.5

 

Jan 17

10:00

JOLTS - Job Openings

Nov

 

NA

NA

3.925M

 


 

MARKET PLACE

 

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night

Levels are for the most active futures contract


Daily Support and Resistance

 

Trend

WS2

WS1

DS

DR

WR1

WR2

Mar ES

U

1807.50

1823

1832

1841

1848.2

1858

Mar Nasdaq

D

3477

3520

3585

3605

3591

3619

Mar Yen

U

94.35

95.25

95.47

96.18

96.70

97.65

Mar EC

U

134.91

135.75

135.80

136.48

137.15

137.71

Mar 10 Year Note

U

122.14

123.10

123.30

124.15

124.25

125.09

Mar 30 Year Bond

U

127.13

129.02

130.15

131.15

131.18

132.13

Mar Soybean

U

12.49

12.64

13.07

13.26

12.95

13.11

Mar Corn

D

3.97

4.15

4.25

4.30

4.41

4.50

Feb Gold

D

1200

1224

1235

1244

1260.4

1272.4

March Silver

D

18.89

19.52

19.93

20.21

20.57

20.98

March Copper

U

324.80

329.60

332

336

338.40

342.50

Feb Crude

D

89.55

91.20

93.49

94.53

94.57

96.75