1.17.13
Top Day Market News
Today’s eco releases do not provide exceptionable event risk but they aren’t entirely without merit either. Industrial capacity and utilization rates are always important as is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Yesterday’s key number was the surprisingly high continuing jobless claims number. Jobs are just not being added to this economy (remember 74K in non-farm payroll) and job creation and retail sales are ultimately joined at the hip while sales are the driver of corporate profit.
Also of note yesterday was job creation in another country, Australia. The expectation there was for a gain of 10K and their economy ended up losing 22K. From the Eurozone to Australia, job creation continues to be a worldwide problem, particularly among youth. Aussie has broken support and could leg even lower after a minor retracement. Below is a weekly chart of that market.
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Week of January 13 - January 17 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Jan 13 |
14:00 |
Treasury Budget |
Dec |
|
+$44.0B |
+$44.0B |
-$1.2B |
|
|
|
Jan 14 |
08:30 |
Retail Sales |
Dec |
|
-0.3% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
Jan 14 |
08:30 |
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Dec |
|
-0.1% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Jan 14 |
08:30 |
Export Prices ex-ag. |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.1% |
|
|
|
Jan 14 |
08:30 |
Import Prices ex-oil |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.0% |
|
|
|
Jan 14 |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
Nov |
|
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
Jan 15 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
01/11 |
|
NA |
NA |
2.6% |
|
|
|
Jan 15 |
08:30 |
PPI |
Dec |
|
0.2% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
Jan 15 |
08:30 |
Core PPI |
Dec |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Jan 15 |
08:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
Jan |
|
4.0 |
3.5 |
1.0 |
|
|
Jan 15 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
01/11 |
|
NA |
NA |
- 2.675M |
|
|
Jan 15 |
14:00 |
Fed's Beige Book |
Jan |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan 16 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
01/11 |
|
335K |
333K |
330K |
|
|
Jan 16 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
01/04 |
|
2875K |
2835K |
2865K |
|
|
Jan 16 |
08:30 |
CPI |
Dec |
|
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
Jan 16 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Dec |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
Jan 16 |
09:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
$35.4B |
|
|
Jan 16 |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Jan |
|
8.0 |
8.0 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
|
Jan 16 |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Jan |
|
57 |
57 |
58 |
|
|
Jan 16 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
01/11 |
|
NA |
NA |
-157 bcf |
|
|
Jan 17 |
08:30 |
Housing Starts |
Dec |
|
945K |
986K |
1091K |
|
|
Jan 17 |
08:30 |
Building Permits |
Dec |
|
1000K |
1000K |
1007K |
|
|
Jan 17 |
09:15 |
Industrial Production |
Dec |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
|
Jan 17 |
09:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Dec |
|
79.1% |
79.1% |
79.0% |
|
|
Jan 17 |
09:55 |
Mich Sentiment |
Jan |
|
81.5 |
83.0 |
82.5 |
|
|
Jan 17 |
10:00 |
JOLTS - Job Openings |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
3.925M |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
U |
1807.50 |
1823 |
1832 |
1841 |
1848.2 |
1858 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
D |
3477 |
3520 |
3585 |
3605 |
3591 |
3619 |
|
Mar Yen |
U |
94.35 |
95.25 |
95.47 |
96.18 |
96.70 |
97.65 |
|
Mar EC |
U |
134.91 |
135.75 |
135.80 |
136.48 |
137.15 |
137.71 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
U |
122.14 |
123.10 |
123.30 |
124.15 |
124.25 |
125.09 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
127.13 |
129.02 |
130.15 |
131.15 |
131.18 |
132.13 |
|
Mar Soybean |
U |
12.49 |
12.64 |
13.07 |
13.26 |
12.95 |
13.11 |
|
Mar Corn |
D |
3.97 |
4.15 |
4.25 |
4.30 |
4.41 |
4.50 |
|
Feb Gold |
D |
1200 |
1224 |
1235 |
1244 |
1260.4 |
1272.4 |
|
March Silver |
D |
18.89 |
19.52 |
19.93 |
20.21 |
20.57 |
20.98 |
|
March Copper |
U |
324.80 |
329.60 |
332 |
336 |
338.40 |
342.50 |
|
Feb Crude |
D |
89.55 |
91.20 |
93.49 |
94.53 |
94.57 |
96.75 |
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