Weekly Futures Report
Filed 3:45 pm
Last Last Week 01.13
Mar Crude 91.77 92.18
Mar Heat 266.08 262.47
Mar Gas (Blended) 249.61 247.34
Crude oil was little changed on Wednesday as the market awaited the
release of the Department of Energy report regarding weekly supply
and demand. The report has been delayed for a day due to the Martin
Luther King holiday on Monday. The trade believes that the report will
show that crude stockpiles have declined for a seventh straight week.
The reason for the drop would be because of the shutdown of the
Alaskan pipeline and a drop in US imports. As for a supportive feature
to the oil complex, the dollar was generally lower against its major
counterparts. The negative aspect to this market is the outlook of the
US economy which is thought to continue to be sluggish for the first
quarter. There are expiration pressures on the crude oil contract as
February is off the board tomorrow. Another continuing positive is the
belief that the United States Federal Reserve will continue to keep shortterm
interest rates artificially low. From a macro perspective, it is the
belief that fundamental demand is recovering and inventories will
decline slowly. The current pattern of trading is for prices to grind
higher than viciously correct. Money flow for crude oil remains positive.
Mar Crude 90.79 93.65
Mar Heat 260.00 268.00
Mar Gas 244.00 254.00
Last Last Week
February Gold 1369.4 1373.80
March Silver 28.68 28.775
Apr Platinum 1835.00 1804.00
Gold rallied for a second consecutive day as the dollar declined,
especially against the yen EC and Swiss franc. As measured against a
basket of major currencies, the dollar’s weakness was attributed to the
idea that the US job recovery will remain lackluster and that the real
estate market will remain hampered by unsold inventory which in turn
will allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates artificially low
going forward. Housing data received on Wednesday was mixed.
Housing starts are down 4.3% while building permits soared. After
probing a new recent high at 29.49, the silver saw some profit-taking
going into the close. In a related market, copper was down over 5 cents
as higher prices have deterred Chinese buying. Money flow in gold is
positive. Money flow in silver is negative.
February Gold 1347.00 1386.00
March Silver 27.65 29.70
Apr Plat 1792.00 1875.00
Last Last Week
March Coffee 232.50 237.500
March Sugar 31.18 32.06
Coffee futures were lower on the idea that hedge selling would increase
from growers in Vietnam to lock in higher prices. Coffee prices in
London have jumped 60% over the past year and they're even higher in
New York. Fundamentals remain positive. Brazil's coffee exports
dropped to 3.15 million bags in November down from 3.5 million bags
in October. Also, Indonesia will harvest 9 million bags coffee for the
current season down from 9.5 million bags last year at this time.
Indonesia is the third largest grower of coffee in the world.
Sugar has been all over the map. Prices made a 30 year high last month
then fell sharply but now may rebound as much a 16% over the next
three weeks according to some market observers. The precipitous slide
in the charts has created buying opportunities for many at this price.
Some observers are looking for the price to hit 36.00 by the end of
February. Sugar is down 10% from last month high which was also the
highest price for this market since 1980. Prices were up 19% last year.
Sugar more than doubled the previous year.
March Coffee 222.60 250.00
March Sugar 29.26 33.06
Last Last Week
March Soybeans 14.114 14.16
March Corn 6.412 6.424
March Wheat 7.972 7.834
As the dollar slumped against major foreign currencies, soybeans
surged in price. With the dollar at an eight week low against major
trading counterparts, the export picture for soybeans brightened.
Corn advanced to a 30 month high before profit-taking set in. World
supplies are expected to fall 14% this year. Wheat inventories are
expected to drop 9.8% this year. The fundamental picture remains
positive for the grain markets. With the prospect for higher prices
hedge selling should be reduced. With Chinese president Hu visiting
Washington, there was the hope that Chinese corn and soybean imports
may actually improve. Money flow in corn is positive. Money flow in
soybeans is positive while money flow in wheat is negative.
March Soybeans 13.95 14.38
March Corn 6.38 6.73
March Wheat 7.65 8.09
Chuck Kespert from NY/NY
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT
LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS
SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS
THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE
FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL
TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO
ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING
LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS
RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.