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The dollar generally lower against its major counterpart on the negative outlook for the US economy

Weekly Futures Report

01.19.11

Filed 3:45 pm

Last Last Week 01.13

Mar Crude 91.77 92.18

Mar Heat 266.08 262.47

Mar Gas (Blended) 249.61 247.34

Crude oil was little changed on Wednesday as the market awaited the

release of the Department of Energy report regarding weekly supply

and demand. The report has been delayed for a day due to the Martin

Luther King holiday on Monday. The trade believes that the report will

show that crude stockpiles have declined for a seventh straight week.

The reason for the drop would be because of the shutdown of the

Alaskan pipeline and a drop in US imports. As for a supportive feature

to the oil complex, the dollar was generally lower against its major

counterparts. The negative aspect to this market is the outlook of the

US economy which is thought to continue to be sluggish for the first

quarter. There are expiration pressures on the crude oil contract as

February is off the board tomorrow. Another continuing positive is the

belief that the United States Federal Reserve will continue to keep shortterm

interest rates artificially low. From a macro perspective, it is the

belief that fundamental demand is recovering and inventories will

decline slowly. The current pattern of trading is for prices to grind

higher than viciously correct. Money flow for crude oil remains positive.

 

Support Resistance

Mar Crude 90.79 93.65

Mar Heat 260.00 268.00

Mar Gas 244.00 254.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

February Gold 1369.4 1373.80

March Silver 28.68 28.775

Apr Platinum 1835.00 1804.00

Gold rallied for a second consecutive day as the dollar declined,

especially against the yen EC and Swiss franc. As measured against a

basket of major currencies, the dollar’s weakness was attributed to the

idea that the US job recovery will remain lackluster and that the real

estate market will remain hampered by unsold inventory which in turn

will allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates artificially low

going forward. Housing data received on Wednesday was mixed.

Housing starts are down 4.3% while building permits soared. After

probing a new recent high at 29.49, the silver saw some profit-taking

going into the close. In a related market, copper was down over 5 cents

as higher prices have deterred Chinese buying. Money flow in gold is

positive. Money flow in silver is negative.

Support Resistance

February Gold 1347.00 1386.00

March Silver 27.65 29.70

Apr Plat 1792.00 1875.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

March Coffee 232.50 237.500

March Sugar 31.18 32.06

Coffee futures were lower on the idea that hedge selling would increase

from growers in Vietnam to lock in higher prices. Coffee prices in

London have jumped 60% over the past year and they're even higher in

New York. Fundamentals remain positive. Brazil's coffee exports

dropped to 3.15 million bags in November down from 3.5 million bags

in October. Also, Indonesia will harvest 9 million bags coffee for the

current season down from 9.5 million bags last year at this time.

Indonesia is the third largest grower of coffee in the world.

Sugar has been all over the map. Prices made a 30 year high last month

then fell sharply but now may rebound as much a 16% over the next

three weeks according to some market observers. The precipitous slide

in the charts has created buying opportunities for many at this price.

Some observers are looking for the price to hit 36.00 by the end of

February. Sugar is down 10% from last month high which was also the

highest price for this market since 1980. Prices were up 19% last year.

Sugar more than doubled the previous year.

Support Resistance

March Coffee 222.60 250.00

March Sugar 29.26 33.06

*****************************************

Last Last Week

March Soybeans 14.114 14.16

March Corn 6.412 6.424

March Wheat 7.972 7.834

As the dollar slumped against major foreign currencies, soybeans

surged in price. With the dollar at an eight week low against major

trading counterparts, the export picture for soybeans brightened.

Corn advanced to a 30 month high before profit-taking set in. World

supplies are expected to fall 14% this year. Wheat inventories are

expected to drop 9.8% this year. The fundamental picture remains

positive for the grain markets. With the prospect for higher prices

hedge selling should be reduced. With Chinese president Hu visiting

Washington, there was the hope that Chinese corn and soybean imports

may actually improve. Money flow in corn is positive. Money flow in

soybeans is positive while money flow in wheat is negative.

Support Resistance

March Soybeans 13.95 14.38

March Corn 6.38 6.73

March Wheat 7.65 8.09

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.