Top Day Recommendations
1.24.12
No eco releases, domestically, again today. Overnight, stocks in Europe came off five month highs as Greek debt talks snagged. Canadian retail sales come in better than expected. European Purchasing Managers Index comes in better than expected. Although participants say a Greek debt deal is very close, that all the ducks are in row, it remains elusive as bond holders drag their feet on haircuts.
Week of January 23 - January 27
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 01/21 | NA | NA | 23.1% | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Dec | -3.0% | -3.0% | 7.3% | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Nov | NA | NA | -0.2% | ||
| 25 | Index | |||||||
| Jan | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 01/21 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 25 | 3.438M | |||||||
| Jan | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Jan | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 01/21 | 375K | 375K | 352K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 01/14 | 3550K | 3550K | 3432K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Dec | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | |
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex | Dec | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | ||
| 26 | Auto | |||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Dec | 310K | 322K | 315K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Dec | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | GDP-Adv. | Q4 | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Chain Deflator-Adv. | Q4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Jan | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Jan | 74.5 | 74.2 | 74.0 | ||
| 27 | Final | |||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1270.75 | 1290.75 | 1304.50 | 1317.50 | 1321.25 | 1331.75 |
| ES | . | ||||||
| Mar | U | 2332.0 | 2383 | 2419.75 | 2451.25 | 2464 | 2493 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | U | 128.69 | 129.33 | 129.60 | 130.13 | 130.58 | 131.39 |
| Yen | |||||||
| Mar | U | 124.68 | 127.05 | 129.15 | 130.95 | 130.66 | 132.08 |
| EC | |||||||
| Mar 10 | D | 129.07 | 130.01 | 129.21 | 130.13 | 131.08 | 132.07 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | D | 139.11 | 140.20 | 140.13 | 142.06 | 144.09 | 146.21 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar | U | 11.43 | 11.65 | 12.00 | 12.27 | 12.06 | 12.25 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 5.84 | 5.98 | 6.142 | 6.234 | 6.19 | 6.27 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1617.8 | 1642.4 | 1666.00 | 1685 | 1681.1 | 1695.2 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | U | 28.52 | 30.35 | 31.78 | 32.75 | 33.10 | 34.03 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 348 | 361 | 374 | 383 | 385 | 396 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Mar | D | 95.33 | 95.86 | 97.90 | 100.74 | 101.08 | 103.77 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.