Top Day Recommendations
1.25.12
The event of the day will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting with the decision on short term rates coming at 12:30. Of course, no expects a rate change but the devil is in the details and the details are in the communiqué that will be released with the decision. In it, the Fed gives guidance as to their estimation of current conditions and future expectations as to economic strength or weakness. It’s believed that they will point to signs of modest strength and improving unemployment.
State of the Union speech last night didn’t move the markets.
Apple wowed the Street with earnings. Hard to believe that the IPhone and I pad didn’t exist 5 years ago but now accounts for 72% of their profit. As the NASDAQ is heavily Apple centric, it went ballistic after the close.
Market is softer today as the ECB is unwilling to take losses on the Greek bond holdings.
Oil inventories out today as well.
Week of January 23 - January 27
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 01/21 | NA | NA | 23.1% | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Briefing.com | Prior | Revised | |
| Forecast | Consensus | From | ||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Dec | -3.0% | -3.0% | 7.3% | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | FHFA Housing Price | Nov | NA | NA | -0.2% | ||
| 25 | Index | |||||||
| Jan | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 01/21 | NA | NA | - | ||
| 25 | 3.438M | |||||||
| Jan | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | Jan | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 25 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 01/21 | 375K | 375K | 352K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 01/14 | 3550K | 3550K | 3432K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Dec | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | |
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Durable Orders -ex | Dec | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | ||
| 26 | Auto | |||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Dec | 310K | 322K | 315K | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Dec | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | ||
| 26 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | GDP-Adv. | Q4 | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Jan | 08:30 | Chain Deflator-Adv. | Q4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | ||
| 27 | ||||||||
| Jan | 09:55 | Michigan Sentiment - | Jan | 74.5 | 74.2 | 74.0 | ||
| 27 | Final | |||||||
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend
U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day
S2 is Weekly strong support
S1 is Weekly good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance
Levels are for the most active futures contract
| Daily Support and Resistance | |||||||
| Trend | WS2 | WS1 | DS | DR | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Mar | U | 1270.75 | 1290.75 | 1304.75 | 1318.50 | 1321.25 | 1331.75 |
| . | |||||||
| ES | |||||||
| Mar | U | 2332.0 | 2383 | 2424.75 | 2452.50 | 2464 | 2493 |
| Nasdaq | |||||||
| Mar | PRD | 128.69 | 129.33 | 127.57 | 129.64 | 130.58 | 131.39 |
| Yen | (D) | ||||||
| Mar | U | 124.68 | 127.05 | 129.65 | 131.25 | 130.66 | 132.08 |
| EC | |||||||
| Mar 10 | D | 129.07 | 130.01 | 129.28 | 130.08 | 131.08 | 132.07 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar 30 | D | 139.11 | 140.20 | 140.08 | 141.22 | 144.09 | 146.21 |
| Year | |||||||
| Mar | U | 11.43 | 11.65 | 12.06 | 12.43 | 12.06 | 12.25 |
| Soybea | |||||||
| ns | |||||||
| March | U | 5.84 | 5.98 | 6.177 | 6.48 | 6.19 | 6.27 |
| Corn | |||||||
| Feb | U | 1617.8 | 1642.4 | 1657 | 1687.50 | 1681.1 | 1695.2 |
| Gold | |||||||
| Mar | U | 28.52 | 30.35 | 31.73 | 32.71 | 33.10 | 34.03 |
| Silver | |||||||
| Mar | U | 348 | 361 | 376 | 387 | 385 | 396 |
| Copper | |||||||
| Mar | D | 95.33 | 95.86 | 97.19 | 100.00 | 101.08 | 103.77 |
| Crude | |||||||
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.