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State of the Union speech last night didn’t move the markets

Top Day Recommendations

1.25.12

The event of the day will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting with the decision on short term rates coming at 12:30. Of course, no expects a rate change but the devil is in the details and the details are in the communiqué that will be released with the decision. In it, the Fed gives guidance as to their estimation of current conditions and future expectations as to economic strength or weakness. It’s believed that they will point to signs of modest strength and improving unemployment.

State of the Union speech last night didn’t move the markets.

Apple wowed the Street with earnings. Hard to believe that the IPhone and I pad didn’t exist 5 years ago but now accounts for 72% of their profit. As the NASDAQ is heavily Apple centric, it went ballistic after the close.

Market is softer today as the ECB is unwilling to take losses on the Greek bond holdings.

Oil inventories out today as well.

Week of January 23 - January 27

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Jan 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 01/21   NA NA 23.1%  
25    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Jan 10:00 Pending Home Sales Dec   -3.0% -3.0% 7.3%  
25    
               
Jan 10:00 FHFA Housing Price Nov   NA NA -0.2%  
25 Index    
             
Jan 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/21   NA NA -  
25   3.438M  
             
Jan 12:30 FOMC Rate Decision Jan   0.25% 0.25% 0.25%  
25    
               
Jan 08:30 Initial Claims 01/21   375K 375K 352K  
26    
               
Jan 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/14   3550K 3550K 3432K  
26    
               
Jan 08:30 Durable Orders Dec   3.0% 2.0% 3.7% 3.8%
26  
               
Jan 08:30 Durable Orders -ex Dec   1.0% 0.7% 0.3%  
26 Auto    
             
Jan 10:00 New Home Sales Dec   310K 322K 315K  
26    
               
Jan 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec   0.7% 0.7% 0.5%  
26    
               
Jan 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4   3.2% 3.1% 1.8%  
27    
               
Jan 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4   0.7% 1.5% 2.6%  
27    
               
Jan 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Jan   74.5 74.2 74.0  
27   Final            

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

    Daily Support and Resistance  
               
  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Mar U 1270.75 1290.75 1304.75 1318.50 1321.25 1331.75
.          
ES            
             
Mar U 2332.0 2383 2424.75 2452.50 2464 2493
           
Nasdaq              
Mar PRD 128.69 129.33 127.57 129.64 130.58 131.39
           
Yen (D)            
Mar U 124.68 127.05 129.65 131.25 130.66 132.08
           
EC              
Mar 10 D 129.07 130.01 129.28 130.08 131.08 132.07
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 D 139.11 140.20 140.08 141.22 144.09 146.21
           
Year              
Mar U 11.43 11.65 12.06 12.43 12.06 12.25
           
Soybea              
ns              
March U 5.84 5.98 6.177 6.48 6.19 6.27
             
Corn              
Feb U 1617.8 1642.4 1657 1687.50 1681.1 1695.2
           
Gold              
Mar U 28.52 30.35 31.73 32.71 33.10 34.03
           
Silver              
Mar U 348 361 376 387 385 396
           
Copper              
Mar D 95.33 95.86 97.19 100.00 101.08 103.77
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.