1.27.2013
Top Day Market News
Friday was a decidedly “risk off” day. The Yen crosses all shot higher on risk aversion. The potential contagion stemming from emerging market currencies drove money into safe haven currencies and bonds. The EC is stable to higher as the EC has emerging market debt which will probably be repatriated. The stock market as mentioned in previous reports was overbought in terms of margin debt and a lack of cash on hand to cover margin calls. The VIX had reflected an incredibly high level of complacency. The stock market had its single biggest decline since June. Nat gas spiked higher supported by the continuing deep freeze in the Northeast US.
The big risk event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday which should provide more information about tapering and other forward guidance.
On this spike, expect the VIX to make a lower high.
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Week of January 27 - January 31 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Jan 27 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
464K |
|
|
|
Jan 28 |
08:30 |
Durable Orders |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
3.4% |
3.5% |
|
|
Jan 28 |
08:30 |
Durable Goods –ex transportation |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
1.2% |
|
|
|
Jan 28 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
13.6% |
|
|
|
Jan 28 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
78.1 |
|
|
|
Jan 29 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.7% |
|
|
|
Jan 29 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.990M |
|
|
|
Jan 29 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
0.25% |
|
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
326K |
|
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
01/18 |
|
NA |
NA |
3056K |
|
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q4 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.1% |
|
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
Q4 |
|
NA |
NA |
2.0% |
|
|
|
Jan 30 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.2% |
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|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Jan 30 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
-107 bcf |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.2% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.5% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.1% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
Q4 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.4% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
60.8 |
59.1 |
|
Jan 31 |
09:55 |
Michigan Sentiment - Final |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
80.4 |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
PRD(D) |
1738 |
1758 |
1768 |
1816 |
1822 |
1865 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
D |
3456 |
3491 |
6500 |
3593 |
3599 |
3671 |
|
Mar Yen |
U |
94.43 |
96.10 |
96.85 |
98.36 |
98.75 |
99.73 |
|
Mar EC |
U |
134.06 |
135.41 |
136.46 |
137.21 |
137.75 |
138.74 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
U |
123.04 |
124.00 |
124.21 |
125.15 |
125.24 |
126.14 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
129.31 |
131.11 |
132.09 |
133.09 |
133.21 |
134.19 |
|
Mar Soybean |
D |
12.36 |
12.60 |
12.69 |
12.93 |
13.11 |
13.37 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
4.17 |
4.23 |
4.26 |
4.31 |
4.33 |
4.37 |
|
Feb Gold |
PRD(U) |
1215.20 |
1242 |
1256 |
1281 |
1274 |
1300 |
|
March Silver |
D |
19.20 |
19.55 |
19.55 |
20.13 |
20.34 |
20.78 |
|
March Copper |
D |
319.60 |
323.00 |
325 |
329 |
332 |
339 |
|
Mar Crude |
U |
91.94 |
94.42 |
95.99 |
97.54 |
98.61 |
100.32 |
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