1.29.2013
Top Day Market News
The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting today, the last under Ben Bernanke, and announces its rate decision and possibly offers forward guidance at 2:00 pm. Of course, trading should contract in front of this number as exposure is taken off the table, then a possible quantum change in the wake if the Fed’s communique. There will be no follow up news conference.
Yesterday, Turkey called an emergency meeting to jack rates from 4.5% to 10% to apply a brake to their currency’s de facto devaluation. South Africa followed suit and raised rates as well. This policy usually fails.
Yesterday’s best performers were Oats and Nat Gas and the worst were Silver, Lumber and Palladium. Crude could have reversed its intermediate trend but didn’t by rallying with some conviction for the balance of the day. It’s best to stay light and nimble ahead of FOMC decisions. There’s plenty of opportunity to be aggressive later. Exercise prudence even if it kills you.
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Week of January 27 - January 31 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Jan 27 |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
464K |
|
|
|
Jan 28 |
08:30 |
Durable Orders |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
3.4% |
3.5% |
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Jan 28 |
08:30 |
Durable Goods –ex transportation |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
1.2% |
|
|
Jan 28 |
09:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
Nov |
|
NA |
NA |
13.6% |
|
|
Jan 28 |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
78.1 |
|
|
Jan 29 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.7% |
|
|
Jan 29 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.990M |
|
|
Jan 29 |
14:00 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
0.25% |
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
326K |
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
01/18 |
|
NA |
NA |
3056K |
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q4 |
|
NA |
NA |
4.1% |
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 |
Chain Deflator-Adv. |
Q4 |
|
NA |
NA |
2.0% |
|
|
Jan 30 |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.2% |
|
|
Jan 30 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
01/25 |
|
NA |
NA |
-107 |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
Personal Income |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.2% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
Personal Spending |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.5% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
PCE Prices - Core |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.1% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
08:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
Q4 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.4% |
|
|
Jan 31 |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
60.8 |
59.1 |
|
Jan 31 |
09:55 |
Michigan Sentiment - Final |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
80.4 |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
D |
1738 |
1758 |
1759.50 |
1798.00 |
1822 |
1865 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
D |
3456 |
3491 |
3445 |
3529 |
3599 |
3671 |
|
Mar Yen |
U |
94.43 |
96.10 |
96.88 |
97.92 |
98.75 |
99.73 |
|
Mar EC |
D |
134.06 |
135.41 |
136.00 |
136.92 |
137.75 |
138.74 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
U |
123.04 |
124.00 |
124.25 |
125.13 |
125.24 |
126.14 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
129.31 |
131.11 |
131.28 |
133.02 |
133.21 |
134.19 |
|
Mar Soybean |
D |
12.36 |
12.60 |
12.72 |
12.91 |
13.11 |
13.37 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
4.17 |
4.23 |
4.29 |
4.32 |
4.33 |
4.37 |
|
Feb Gold |
D |
1215.20 |
1242 |
1245.00 |
1268.00 |
1274 |
1300 |
|
March Silver |
D |
19.20 |
19.55 |
19.35 |
19.98 |
20.34 |
20.78 |
|
March Copper |
D |
319.60 |
323.00 |
324.15 |
328.50 |
332 |
339 |
|
Mar Crude |
U |
91.94 |
94.42 |
96.14 |
98.17 |
98.61 |
100.32 |
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