Top Day Recommendations
January 31
Protests in Egypt entering their sixth day have led to a hoarding of cash. Fears of unrest spreading
to oil producing nations produced a spike higher in prices Friday for the oil complex. As some
progress in the Egyptian situation seems ultimately possible, the price eased back by $1.40 from the
spike high just in the first six hours of trade last night. Stocks were under pressure early Sunday
night but bounced back. January 31st is a strong seasonal for higher equity prices for a one day
holding period. The Yen is seeing sporadic flight to quality buying.
Week of January 31 - February 04
Date ET Release For Actual estimated Consensus Prior Revised
From
Jan 31 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
Jan 31 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Jan 31 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Jan 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 65.0 65.0 66.8 68.6
Feb 01 10:00 Construction Spending Dec -0.5% -0.5% 0.4%
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 57.5 58.2 58.5 57.0
Feb 01 15:00 Auto Sales Feb NA NA 3.90M
Feb 01 15:00 Truck Sales Feb NA NA 5.56M
Feb 02 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/28 NA NA -12.9%
Feb 02 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jan NA NA -29.0%
Feb 02 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jan 150K 150K 297K
Feb 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/29 NA NA 4.84M
Feb 03 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 2.0% 2.2% 2.3%
Feb 03 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q4 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Feb 03 08:30 Initial Claims 01/29 410K 425K 454K
Feb 03 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/29 3900K 3925K 3991K
Feb 03 10:00 Factory Orders Dec -0.5% -0.7% 0.7%
Feb 03 10:00 ISM Services Jan 57.5 57.0 57.1
Feb 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 125K 150K 103k
Date ET Release For Actual estimated Consensus Prior Revised
From
Feb 04 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jan 140K 163K 113k
Feb 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 9.6% 9.6% 9.4%
Feb 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jan 34.3 34.3 34.3
Feb 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Current views, speculations and suggestions
good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature
only, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend:
P is positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly, so DS can be below weekly support
levels and DR can be above weekly resistance levels as a week of trading
unfolds
Levels are for the most active futures contract.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
Emini
S&P N 1251.50 1261.50 1261.5 1290.50 1290.50 1309.50
Emini NQ P 2210.50 2239.00 2273 2246 2315.50 2363.00
Yen P 119.47 120.61 120.91 122.3 122.46 123.17
EC P 134.11 135.97 135.44 137.08 137.30 138.51
10 year P 119.11 120.08 120.14 121.15 121.20 122.07
30 year P 118.23 120.03 119.15 120.29 122.06 123.05
Soybeans N 13.34 13.66 13.87 14.18 14.28 14.58
Corn PRD 6.255 6.34 6.38 6.54 6.57 6.71
Gold P 1310.7 1326.3 1316 1355 1368.2 1394.5
Silver N 25.70 26.83 26.81 28.54 28.56 29.16
Copper P 412.50 423.90 430.5 442.4 443.80 452.20
Mar
Crude N 83.50 86.50 86.39 91.00 91.10 92.73
Sugar P 33.49 34.46
**************
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.