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Phone: 312.920.0212
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Nonfarm payrolls comes in with add of 257,000 jobs

Top Day Recommendations

2.03.12

Nonfarm payrolls comes in with a whopping add of 257,000 jobs. This number is way above consensus. My list the bonds are down one half points and stocks shot higher. At some point during the day there will be a regression to the mean however, this number is so out of the spectrum of expectation that it can induce a revaluation of models. But things take a look at its technical levels to steer you through this amount of noise.

Enjoy the weekend and the game.

Week of January 30 - February 03

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Jan 08:30 Personal Income Dec   0.4% 0.4 0.1%  
30    
               
Jan 08:30 Personal Spending Dec   0.2% 0.1 0.1%  
30    
               
Jan 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Dec   0.1% 0.2 0.1%  
30    
               
Jan 08:30 Employment Cost Q4   NA 0.4 0.3%  
31 Index    
             
Jan 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Nov   -2.0% -2.6 -3.4%  
31 Index    
             
Jan 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan   61.0 62 62.5  
31    
               
Jan 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan   67.0 67 64.5  
31    
               
Feb 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 01/28   NA NA NA  
01    
               
Feb 08:15 ADP Employment Jan   250K 175K 325K  
01 Change    
             
Feb 10:00 ISM Index Jan   55.0 54.7 53.9  
01    
               
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Briefing.com Prior Revised
          Forecast Consensus   From
Feb 10:00 Construction Spending Dec   0.5% 0.4% 1.2%  
01    
               
Feb 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/28   NA NA NA  
01    
               
Feb 14:00 Auto Sales Jan   NA 13.5M 4.20M  
01    
               
Feb 14:00 Truck Sales Jan   NA NA 6.04M  
01    
               
Feb 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jan   NA NA 30.6%  
02    
               
Feb 08:30 Initial Claims 01/28   375K 375K NA  
02    
               
Feb 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/21   3550K 3525K NA  
02    
               
Feb 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4   2.0% 0.6% 2.3%  
02    
               
Feb 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q4   -1.0% 0.8% -2.5%  
02    
               
Feb 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan   225K 170K 200K  
03    
               
Feb 08:30 Nonfarm Private Jan   250K 145K 212K  
03 Payrolls    
             
Feb 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan   8.4% 8.5% 8.5%  
03    
               
Feb 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan   0.2% 0.2% 0.2%  
03    
               
Feb 08:30 Average Workweek Jan   34.4 34.4 34.4  
03    
               
Feb 10:00 Factory Orders Dec   1.5% 1.6% 1.8%  
03    
               
Feb 10:00 ISM Services Jan   53.0 53.1 52.6  
03    
               

Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend

U is Up

D is Down

PRD is Potential Reversal Day

S2 is Weekly strong support

S1 is Weekly good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Weekly Good Resistance

R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance

Levels are for the most active futures contract

Daily Support and Resistance

  Trend WS2 WS1 DS DR WR1 WR2
Mar PRD 1286.50 1299.00 1318 1330 1327 1342
           
ES (U)            
Mar U 2394 2425 2480 2511 2481 2507
           
Nasdaq              
Mar U 126.84 128.64 131.03 131.52 131.39 132.34
           
Yen              
Mar U 127.51 129.79 130.86 132.50 133.36 134.55
           
EC              
Mar 10 U 129.03 130.13 131.03 132.10 132.13 133.04
           
Year              
               
Mar 30 U 139.21 141.17 143.26 144.31 144.14 145.15
           
Year              
Mar U 11.75 11.97 12.07 12.34 12.36 12.53
           
Soybea              
ns              
March U 5.99 6.205 6.35 6.48 6.54 6.66
             
Corn              
April U 1618.2 1677.9 1735 1767 1768 1799
           
Gold              
Mar U 30.71 32.33 33.61 34.57 34.77 35.59
           
Silver              
Mar D 363 376 374 388 398 406
           
Copper              
Mar D 95.52 97.64 9520 9775 101.63 103.50
           
Crude              
               

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But whatever you do, stop thinking about any other alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.