WEEKLY FUTURES REPORT
02.04.11
Delayed a day due to weather.
Filed 9:15 pm
Last Last Week 01.26
Mar Crude 90.68 87.62
Mar Heat 276.30 268.12
Mar Gas (Blended) 250.34 246.07
On Thursday, the International Energy Agency stated that oil prices
which have recently risen due to unrest in Egypt will eventually fall
because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries known as
OPEC will increase supply as they can tap into spare capacity. Some
market observers do not expect prices to stay at these elevated levels.
Some thought that the passage of oil to the Suez Canal was jeopardized
by the recent political unrest in Egypt but it's apparent that the Army
has control of the canal and distribution will not be hampered.
Unfortunately protests in Egypt have turned violent and this prompted
concern that this kind of activity could spread to other key areas in the
Middle East. Earlier in the session, oil prices fell after the European
Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and the president of the
ECB Jean-Claude Trichet gave indication that no interest-rate hike was
imminent. This in turn sent the EC lower in price and took crude oil
with it. Some traders also mentioned that the failure of crude oil to
break through $92 a barrel was an occasion to take profits. Brent crude
oil also fell in price for the first time in five days. Brent has traded as
high as a 28 month high at $103.37 a barrel. On the fundamental side,
US crude inventories based in Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 2.59
million barrels to trade it in 43.2 million barrels for the latest reporting
week. It's also expected that OPEC will increase crude shipments by
1.7% to 24+ million barrels a day by February 19. Money flow in crude
oil could flip to positive with a higher close on Friday. Money flow in
heating oil is positive. Money flow in gasoline is also positive.
Support Resistance
Mar Crude 89.23 92.50
Mar Heat 273.00 280.00
Mar Gas 246.00 253.80
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METALS
Last Last Week
April Gold 1353.2 1345.00
March Silver 28.855 27.56
Apr Platinum 1842.70 1813.60
Gold and silver on Thursday rallied to two-week highs as the political
instability in Egypt has driven demand toward hard assets. Technically,
the market has seen a reduction in speculative interest but an increased
positioning by commercials along with declining open interest. This
structure can lead to explosive rallies. Money flow in gold remains
positive. Players expect that if the situation in Egypt continues to
deteriorate there will be continued demand for gold. There’s also the
possibility that when banks reopen in Egypt, possibly as early as
Monday, there may be a run on those banks to withdraw money. Silver
also drew buying interest and rose nearly $.45 or 1.6% on Thursday to
its best level since January 19. Money flow in both commodities remains
positive.
Support Resistance
April Gold 1324.00 1365.00
March Silver 27.75 29.00
Apr Plat 1816.00 1850.00
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SOFTS
Last Last Week
March Coffee 251.35 237.50
March Sugar 32.04 33.13
Sugar saw a sharp decline on Thursday falling by as much as 3.27%
which is the biggest single day change since December 30 when
commodities across the board plunged 10%. The impetus behind the
selling was the fear that Cyclone Yasi will severely reduce output in
Australia. However, crop damage was less than initially feared as the
cyclone was eventually downgraded from a category 5 to a category 2.
Some players called today's action computer trading at its worst.
Support Resistance
March Coffee 244.00 255.00
March Sugar 31.70 33.90
*****************************************
Last Last Week
March Soybeans 14.42 13.854
March Corn 6.67 6.576
March Wheat 8.644 8.564
Wheat was under accumulation on Wednesday to rally the most in over
two months as a vicious cold snap gripped the Midwest with the
possibility of damaging winter crops. Corn and soybeans were along for
the ride to 30 month highs as traders thought that governments and
producers of food will increase purchases to counter increasing political
and labor instability in Egypt and Argentina. Money flow in soybeans,
corn and wheat all remain positive.
Support Resistance
March Soybeans 14.24 14.61
March Corn 6.57 6.80
March Wheat 8.26 8.83
Chuck Kespert from NY/NY
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT
LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS
SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS
THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE
FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL
TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO
ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING
LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS
RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.