Top Day Recommendations
February 4th
Here we go. The most important economic release on Earth is released
today. Unemployment is expected to show an increase in jobs and an
increase in unemployment over 9.6%. The previous month saw a move
down to 9.4% on the discouraged leaving the system. The headline
number should increase as the discouraged find encouragement.
Yesterday, the EC fell when Trichet indicated that he wasn’t in a hurry to
raise rates even with higher commodity prices.
Last night, the RBA lifted growth prospects for Australia (did they factor in
flooding and cyclones? IDTS) and this lifted the Aussie. The Aussie/CAD
spread is almost back to previous highs, incredulously.
The British Pound as a proxy for British banks might have some exposure
if there is a shock to the Egyptian banking system when it reopens.
Will the Yen seek out stops above 123.65? That’s where it broke from on
the credit downgrade.
Week of January 31 - February 04
Date ET Release For Actual estimated Consensus Prior Revised
From
Jan 31 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
Jan 31 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Jan 31 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Dec 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Jan 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 65.0 65.0 66.8 68.6
Feb 01 10:00 Construction Spending Dec -0.5% -0.5% 0.4%
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 57.5 58.2 58.5 57.0
Feb 01 15:00 Auto Sales Feb NA NA 3.90M
Feb 01 15:00 Truck Sales Feb NA NA 5.56M
Feb 02 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/28 NA NA -12.9%
Feb 02 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jan NA NA -29.0%
Feb 02 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jan 150K 150K 297K
Feb 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/29 NA NA 4.84M
Feb 03 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 2.0% 2.2% 2.3%
Feb 03 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q4 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Feb 03 08:30 Initial Claims 01/29 410K 425K 454K
Feb 03 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/29 3900K 3925K 3991K
Feb 03 10:00 Factory Orders Dec -0.5% -0.7% 0.7%
Feb 03 10:00 ISM Services Jan 57.5 57.0 57.1
Feb 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 125K 150K 103k
Feb 04 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jan 140K 163K 113k
Feb 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 9.6% 9.6% 9.4%
Feb 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jan 34.3 34.3 34.3
Feb 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Current views, speculations and suggestions
good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature
only, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend:
P is positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly, so DS can be below weekly support
levels and DR can be above weekly resistance levels as a week of trading
unfolds
Levels are for the most active futures contract.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
Emini
S&P N 1251.50 1261.50 1294 1308 1290.50 1309.50
Emini NQ P 2210.50 2239.00 2302 2333 2315.50 2363.00
Yen PRD 119.47 120.61 121.97 122.98 122.46 123.17
EC PRD 134.11 135.97 135.48 137.64 137.30 138.51
10 year N 119.11 120.08 119.04 119.27 121.20 122.07
30 year N 118.23 120.03 118.16 119.17 122.06 123.05
Soybeans P 13.34 13.66 14.30 14.48 14.28 14.58
Corn P 6.255 6.34 6.56 6.72 6.57 6.71
Apr Gold P 1310.7 1326.3 1333 1364 1368.2 1394.5
Silver P 25.70 26.83 28.12 29.14 28.56 29.16
Copper P 412.50 423.90 451 457 443.80 452.20
Mar
Crude N 83.50 86.50 89.67 91.72 91.10 92.73
Sugar P 29.82 31.88 31 34 35.27 36.60
**************
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.