2.04.2014
Top Day Market News
Yesterday’s top performers were Coffee and Oats and the worst performers on the board were heating oil and stock index futures. As for stocks, it was the worst start to a February since 1933. Risk aversion was expressing itself eloquently yesterday with Yen and Bonds higher, dollar lower. The opening day for February was the worst since 1933. Sounds ominous if nothing else. Corrections are good for markets until you are caught in one. The key is that we are back to a “risk on/risk off” binary market and with the probability of continued tapering by the Fed and the probability of mismanagement by emerging countries of their economies, we are generally in a “risk off” environment. The response to a weaker than expected ISM number was the catalyst yesterday for a vigorous decline.
The depth of that decline suggests a reversal Tuesday today. Factory orders and ISM services at 10.
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Feb 03 |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Jan |
|
57.0 |
56.0 |
56.5 |
57.0 |
|
Feb 03 |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Dec |
|
-1.0% |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
|
Feb 03 |
14:00 |
Auto Sales |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
5.3M |
|
|
Feb 03 |
14:00 |
Truck Sales |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
6.6M |
|
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
Feb 04 |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Dec |
|
-2.0% |
-1.7% |
1.8% |
|
|
Feb 05 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/01 |
|
NA |
NA |
-0.2% |
|
|
Feb 05 |
08:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Jan |
|
175K |
178K |
238K |
|
|
Feb 05 |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Jan |
|
53.5 |
53.8 |
53.0 |
|
|
Feb 05 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
02/01 |
|
NA |
NA |
6.421M |
|
|
Feb 06 |
07:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
-5.9% |
|
|
Feb 06 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
02/01 |
|
330K |
335K |
348K |
|
|
Feb 06 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
01/25 |
|
3000K |
2993K |
2991K |
|
|
Feb 06 |
08:30 |
Trade Balance |
Dec |
|
-$37.0B |
-$36.0B |
-$34.3B |
|
|
Feb 06 |
08:30 |
Productivity-Prel |
Q4 |
|
2.5% |
2.4% |
3.0% |
|
|
Feb 06 |
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q4 |
|
0.0% |
-0.5% |
-1.4% |
|
|
Feb 06 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
02/01 |
|
NA |
NA |
-230 bcf |
|
|
Feb 07 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Jan |
|
150K |
175K |
74K |
|
|
Feb 07 |
08:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Jan |
|
160K |
161K |
87K |
|
|
Feb 07 |
08:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Jan |
|
6.5% |
6.7% |
6.7% |
|
|
Feb 07 |
08:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Jan |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
Feb 07 |
08:30 |
Average Workweek |
Jan |
|
34.5 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
|
Feb 07 |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Dec |
|
$10.0B |
$11.5B |
$12.3B |
|
MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
D |
1739.75 |
1758.50 |
1716 |
1766 |
1798.0 |
1819.00 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
D |
3414 |
3464 |
3393 |
3498 |
3555 |
3595 |
|
Mar Yen |
U |
96.05 |
96.90 |
98.14 |
98.74 |
98.40 |
99.06 |
|
Mar EC |
D |
133.22 |
134.03 |
134.92 |
135.24 |
136.41 |
137.98 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
U |
124.05 |
124.31 |
125.27 |
126.23 |
126.07 |
126.26 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
U |
1331.08 |
132.14 |
133.28 |
135.17 |
134.12 |
135.04 |
|
Mar Soybean |
U |
12.45 |
15.64 |
12.804 |
13.02 |
12.97 |
13.11 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
4.24 |
4.29 |
4.33 |
4.38 |
4.36 |
4.39 |
|
Feb Gold |
D |
1211.80 |
1228.70 |
1244 |
1270 |
1271.3 |
1297.00 |
|
March Silver |
D |
18.28 |
18.71 |
19.11 |
19.66 |
19.83 |
20.56 |
|
March Copper |
D |
312.60 |
316.00 |
317.2 |
321.00 |
325.00 |
332.00 |
|
Mar Crude |
PRD(D) |
93.70 |
95.55 |
95.81 |
97.49 |
98.90 |
100.45 |
|
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|
|
|
|
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