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Easing of tensions in Egypt conjures up most risk appetite

Top Day Recommendations

February 8th

No eco releases today. Apparent easing of tensions in Egypt saw a modest

return of risk appetite last night and a slight movement away from the

dollar. Crosscurrents continue however. SocGen comes out and says that

commodities will beat emerging market stocks in 2011 while at the same

time US gasoline supplies are probably at 21 year highs in Cushing,

Oklahoma. Oil has been on the defensive lately with the recognition of

probable supply increases. Hedge funds have apparently increased their

long side exposure in oil on the belief that Egyptian tensions will not be

contained. At the same time, traffic through the Suez Canal has not

declined. These players may be in for a huge whipsaw. Two weeks ago,

large speculators cut their long side exposure by the most in two months.

Then oil rallies 4.3% in a single day (January 28th). Now rallies are well met

as late longs try to get out.

Week of February 07 - February 11

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $2.5B $2.5B $1.3B

Feb 09 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 02/04 NA NA 11.3%

Feb 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/05 NA NA 2.59M

Feb 10 08:30 Initial Claims 02/05 410K 413K 415K

Feb 10 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/29 3900K 3900K 3925K

Feb 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 1.5% 0.7% -0.2%

Feb 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan NA -$50.0B -42.6B

Feb 11 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$42.0B -$40.7B -$38.3B

Feb 11 09:55 Mich Sentiment Feb 75.5 75.5 74.2

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature

only, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend:

P is positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly, so DS can be below weekly support

levels and DR can be above weekly resistance levels as a week of trading

unfolds

Levels are for the most active futures contract.

DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini

S&P P 1246 1276 1308 1321 1323 1338

Emini NQ P 2217 2277 2333 2358 2368 2399

Yen N 119.96 120.79 121.05 121.97 122.93 124.24

EC N 133.39 134.59 135.15 136.87 137.77 139.75

10 year N 116.13 117.15 118.08 118.31 120.17 122.17

30 year N 115.03 116.16 117.20 118.12 120.16 123.03

Soybeans N 13.68 14.01 14.15 14.38 14.43 14.84

Corn P 6.29 6.54 6.685 6.815 6.81 7.04

Apr Gold P 1307 1342 1343.0 1359.3 1358 1367

Silver P 26.87 27.99 29.26 29.52 29.17 30.40

Copper P 423 441 1343.00 1353.70 461 479

Mar

Crude N 85.68 87.40 86.59 88.95 91.84 94.56

Sugar P 29.22 30.93 33 33.82 35.21 37.78

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.