Top Day Recommendations
February 9
Another light day with crude inventories expecting to show builds at 10:30
am. There will also be Aussie unemployment figures out at 7:30 NY time.
This data could be skewed greatly by the recent spate of flooding,
typhoons and generally intolerable weather that’s hit Australia so it’s
difficult to see job creation with this number.
Lastly, for followers of cyclic activity, the possibility that we are at an
intermediate top in stocks has greatly increased over the past two days.
Longs should feel highly uncomfortable at these levels. The NASDAQ has
been under accumulation 10 out of the last 12 trading sessions. And the
shorts? Which shorts, exactly? They’ve been ground out of the market.
Yesterday, gold went parabolic largely on its own. The dollar was basically
strong, crude was weak, interest rates backed up yet again and China
raises rates to snuff inflation. Even rates on Portuguese and Spanish debt
contracted. As gold is a non interest rate bearing asset, by definition its
only competition is the cost of money. Yesterday that was ignored, at least
for a session.
Week of February 07 - February 11
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised
From
Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $2.5B $2.5B $1.3B
Feb 09 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 02/04 NA NA 11.3%
Feb 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/05 NA NA 2.59M
Feb 10 08:30 Initial Claims 02/05 410K 413K 415K
Feb 10 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/29 3900K 3900K 3925K
Feb 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 1.5% 0.7% -0.2%
Feb 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan NA -$50.0B -42.6B
Feb 11 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$42.0B -$40.7B -$38.3B
Feb 11 09:55 Mich Sentiment Feb 75.5 75.5 74.2
Current views, speculations and suggestions
good till close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature
only, not fundamentally based or biased.
Legend:
P is positive
N is Negative
PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day
S2 is strong support
S1 is good support
DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Good resistance
R2 is Strong Resistance
S1, S2, R1, R2 change once, weekly, so DS can be below weekly support
levels and DR can be above weekly resistance levels as a week of trading
unfolds
Levels are for the most active futures contract.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2
Emini
S&P P 1246 1276 1315.75 1325 1323 1338
Emini NQ P 2217 2277 2348 2370 2368 2399
Yen N 119.96 120.79 121.03 122.03 122.93 124.24
EC PRD 133.39 134.59 135.65 136.80 137.77 139.75
10 year N 116.13 117.15 117.00 118.00 120.17 122.17
30 year N 115.03 116.16 116.16 117.17 120.16 123.03
Soybeans N 13.68 14.01 14.21 14.42 14.43 14.84
Corn PRD 6.29 6.54 6.69 6.78 6.81 7.04
Apr Gold P 1307 1342 1353 1371.6 1358 1367
Silver P 26.87 27.99 29.61 30.65 29.17 30.40
Copper P 423 441 453 463 461 479
Mar
Crude N 85.68 87.40 85.85 88.08 91.84 94.56
Sugar N 29.22 30.93 29.62 30.70 35.21 37.78
**************
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these
numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.
Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.
Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the
margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if
it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But
whatever you do, stop thinking about any other
alternative and use Stops.
********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for
everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.
Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
***********************
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH
ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS
BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS
LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE
ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR
TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS
WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.