2.10.2014
Top Day Market News
Equities rallied, then fell then rallied Friday as the non farm payroll number came in less than expected, again. Even the previous month, an anemic 74K, was only upwardly revised by 1K. The worse than expected NFP number suggested to some that the Fed may be persuaded to pause the taper of its asset purchases. Later in the day, comments from some Fed officials and well placed journalists suggested otherwise.
The market is caught up in a sequence of volatility. It’s not a leading indicator but a coincident one. The market is in a “VIX box.” When the VIX approaches single digits, expect something to go wrong. When the VIX exceeds 20, expect a rally. See chart below for a more eloquent explanation.
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Week of February 10 - February 14 |
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Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com Forecast |
Briefing.com Consensus |
Prior |
Revised From |
|
|
Feb 11 |
10:00 |
JOLTS - Job Openings |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
4.001M |
|
|
|
Feb 11 |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.5% |
|
|
|
Feb 12 |
07:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/08 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Feb 12 |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
02/08 |
|
NA |
NA |
0.440M |
|
|
|
Feb 12 |
14:00 |
Treasury Budget |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
$2.9B |
|
|
|
Feb 13 |
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
02/08 |
|
NA |
NA |
331K |
|
|
|
Feb 13 |
08:30 |
Continuing Claims |
02/01 |
|
NA |
NA |
2964K |
|
|
|
Feb 13 |
08:30 |
Retail Sales |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
0.2% |
|
|
|
Feb 13 |
08:30 |
Retail Sales ex-auto |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
0.7% |
|
|
|
Feb 13 |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
Dec |
|
NA |
NA |
0.4% |
|
|
|
Feb 13 |
10:30 |
Natural Gas Inventories |
02/08 |
|
NA |
NA |
-262 bcf |
|
|
|
Feb 14 |
08:30 |
Export Prices ex-ag. |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
0.3% |
|
|
|
Feb 14 |
08:30 |
Import Prices ex-oil |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
Feb 14 |
09:15 |
Industrial Production |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
0.3% |
|
|
|
Feb 14 |
09:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Jan |
|
NA |
NA |
79.2 |
|
|
|
Feb 14 |
09:55 |
Mich Sentiment |
Feb |
|
NA |
NA |
81.2 |
|
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MARKET PLACE
Numbers are good up until the close of business today. These are strictly technical in nature, not fundamentally based or biased
Legend U is Up
D is Down
PRD is Potential Reversal Day S2 is Weekly strong support S1 is Weekly good support DS is Daily Support
DR is Daily Resistance
R1 is Weekly Good Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
R2 is Weekly Strong Resistance and is calculated once a week on Sunday night
Levels are for the most active futures contract
Daily Support and Resistance
|
|
Trend |
WS2 |
WS1 |
DS |
DR |
WR1 |
WR2 |
|
Mar ES |
PRD(U) |
1712 |
1752 |
1769 |
1805 |
1814 |
1835 |
|
Mar Nasdaq |
PRD(U) |
3362 |
3461 |
3504 |
3586 |
3611 |
3661 |
|
Mar Yen |
PRD(D) |
96.41 |
67.09 |
97.31 |
98.41 |
98.86 |
99.95 |
|
Mar EC |
U |
134.13 |
135.20 |
135.70 |
137.03 |
136.90 |
137.53 |
|
Mar 10 Year Note |
D |
124.19 |
125.09 |
125.11 |
126.13 |
126.18 |
127.25 |
|
Mar 30 Year Bond |
D |
130.22 |
132.03 |
132.14 |
134.04 |
134.26 |
136.10 |
|
Mar Soybean |
U |
12.58 |
12.95 |
13.23 |
13.40 |
13.51 |
13.78 |
|
Mar Corn |
U |
4.27 |
4.35 |
4.38 |
4.41 |
4.49 |
4.55 |
|
Aprl Gold |
D |
1226 |
1241 |
1254.9 |
1279 |
128 |
1294 |
|
March Silver |
U |
18.51 |
19.24 |
19.76 |
20.36 |
20.52 |
21.06 |
|
March Copper |
PRD(U) |
315 |
319.50 |
321 |
326 |
327 |
329.60 |
|
Mar Crude |
U |
94.90 |
97.52 |
97.91 |
101.04 |
101.50 |
102.86 |
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